1 Introduction 1
Climate Change Cases 5
References 6
2 Setting the Stage for Climate Change Litigation 7
2.1 The Scientific Framework of Climate Change 7
2.1.1 Understanding Climate Change 8
2.1.1.1 The Earth’s Natural Climate System 8
2.1.1.1.1 Climate and the Climate System 8
2.1.1.1.2 The Earth’s Average Temperature 8
2.1.1.2 Natural Causes of Climate Change 9
2.1.1.2.1 Climate Epochs 9
2.1.1.2.2 Natural Climate Variations 10
2.1.1.3 Anthropogenic Climate Change 11
2.1.1.3.1 The Greenhouse Effect 11
2.1.1.3.2 Non-Emissive Sources of Climate
Change 13
2.1.2 Impacts of Climate Change and Global Warming 14
2.1.2.1 Melting of Glaciers, Ice Sheets and Polar
Sea Ice 14
2.1.2.2 Melting Permafrost and the Release
of Methane 16
2.1.2.3 Extreme Weather Events 17
2.1.2.4 Indirect Impacts of Climate Change 18
2.1.2.4.1 Impacts on Oceans, Nature
and Biodiversity 18
2.1.2.4.2 Social Impacts 20
2.1.2.4.3 Economic Impacts 21
2.1.3 Conclusion 22
2.2 Climate Change Litigation: An Overview 22
2.2.1 Defining Climate Change Litigation 23
2.2.2 Categorizing Climate Change Litigation 26
2.2.2.1 Characteristics of Climate Change Lawsuits 26
2.2.2.1.1 Parties to the Proceeding 26
2.2.2.1.2 Jurisdiction, Area of Law
and Subject Matter 27
2.2.2.1.3 Objectives and Motivation 29
2.2.2.2 Generations of Climate Change Litigation 31
2.2.2.3 Current Trends and Developments 32
Climate Change?Cases 35
Cases 37
References 38
3 Causation in Climate Change Litigation 43
3.1 Causation as a Precondition of Law 43
3.1.1 The Purpose of Causation in Law 43
3.1.2 The Two-Tiered Approach to Causation in Law 45
3.1.3 Sources of Causal Inquiries 49
3.2 Causation in Legal Practice 51
3.2.1 Causation in Domestic Law 51
3.2.2 Causation in Regional and International Law 53
3.2.2.1 International Law and the International
Court of Justice 53
3.2.2.2 Causation and State Responsibility 55
3.2.2.3 International Criminal Law, the International
Criminal Court and International Criminal
Tribunals 59
3.2.2.4 European Law and the Court of Justice
of the European Union 62
3.2.3 Causation in the Regional and International Human
Rights Framework 64
3.2.3.1 Negative Versus Positive Obligations 65
3.2.3.2 The European Convention on Human
Rights and the European Court
of Human Rights 66
3.2.3.3 The American Convention on Human
Rights and the Inter-American Court
of Human Rights 69
3.2.4 Conclusion 71
3.3 Causation and Climate Change 72
3.3.1 Scientific Causation and Climate Change 72
3.3.1.1 Model of a Climatic Chain of Causation 72
3.3.1.2 Attribution Science 76
3.3.2 Law-Inherent Obstacles to Finding
Climatic Causation 79
3.3.2.1 Delimiting Climatic Causation 79
3.3.2.2 Minimal Contributions and the
‘Drop-in-the-Ocean Argument’ 80
3.3.2.3 The Temporal Sphere of Causing
Climate Change: Historical and Future
Emissions 82
3.3.2.4 Negative Versus Positive Obligations 83
3.3.3 Connecting Law and Science in Climatic Causation 85
3.3.3.1 The Nature of Climatic Causal Chains 85
3.3.3.2 Scientific and Legal Fact-Finding 86
3.3.3.3 Judicial Demands Versus Scientific Studies 87
3.3.3.4 Finding Common Grounds 88
3.4 The Status Quo of Causation in Climate Change Litigation:
An Empirical, Systematic and Substantive Analysis 89
3.4.1 The Methodological Interface 90
3.4.1.1 Overall Parameters 90
3.4.1.2 Contextual Analysis and Subject of Research 92
3.4.2 Overall Findings 94
3.4.3 Causation in Climate Change Decisions and Judgments 95
3.4.3.1 The Marginal Existence of Causal
Considerations 95
3.4.3.2 The Factual and Formalistic Analysis 97
3.4.3.2.1 The Geographical Allocation 97
3.4.3.2.2 The Field and Area of Law,
Response and Direction of Action 100
3.4.3.3 The Systematic and Substantive Structure
of Causal Argumentation 104
3.4.3.3.1 The Four Notions of Causal
Argument 104
3.4.3.3.2 General Causation 115
3.4.3.3.3 Specific Causation 116
3.4.3.3.4 Cumulative Causation, Minimal
Contributions and the
Drop-in-the-Ocean Argument 118
3.4.4 Results of the Analysis 121
3.5 Summary of Findings 123
Climate Change Cases 124
Cases 127
References 128
4 Factual Causation 135
4.1 Factual Causation in Climate Change Litigation 135
4.1.1 Introducing Factual Causation 136
4.1.2 Omissions as Causes 137
4.1.3 Evaluative Criteria of Factual Causal Doctrines 140
4.2 Counterfactual Causation 142
4.2.1 The Metaphysical Interface of Counterfactual
Theories of Causation 142
4.2.2 The Viability of Counterfactual Tests in Climate
Change Litigation 143
4.2.2.1 Cumulative Causation and Causal
Over-Determination 146
4.2.2.2 Alternative Causation 151
4.2.2.3 The Outlier of Asymmetrical Overdetermined
Concurrent Causes 153
4.2.2.4 The Spatial and Temporal Sphere of Causal
Relata 154
4.2.2.4.1 The Spatial Sphere
of Counterfactuality 154
4.2.2.4.2 The Temporal Sphere
of Counterfactuality 155
4.2.2.5 Conclusion 157
4.2.3 The Strategy of Factual Concretization 157
4.2.3.1 Concretizing Climatic Causation 158
4.2.3.1.1 Concretizing Cases of Cumulative
Causation 159
4.2.3.1.2 Concretizing Cases of Alternative
Causation 161
4.2.3.1.3 Conclusion 163
4.2.3.2 Translating Causal Concretization
into Climate Practice 163
4.2.3.3 Shortcomings of the Strategy
of Concretization 164
4.2.3.4 Introducing Criteria of Concretization 166
4.2.3.4.1 Chain-Related Individualization 166
4.2.3.4.2 The Necessity for Legally
Relevant Information 167
4.2.3.4.3 Factors of Legal Individualization 169
4.2.4 Conclusion 174
4.3 Regularity Theories of General Causation 176
4.3.1 Metaphysical Substantiation of Theories of Regularity 176
4.3.1.1 The General Principles of Theories
of Regularity 176
4.3.1.2 Imperfect Regularities, Spurious Regularities
and Epiphenomenal Causes 180
4.3.1.3 The Set-Setting Dilemma 182
4.3.1.4 Combining Counterfactuals and Regularities 187
4.3.2 Reconciling Theories of Regularity with Climatic
Causation 188
4.3.3 Conclusion 192
4.4 Probabilistic Theories of Causation 193
4.4.1 Metaphysical Substantiation of Probabilistic Theories
of Causation 193
4.4.1.1 The General Principles of Probabilistic
Causation 193
4.4.1.2 The Dichotomy Between Logic, Intuition
and Theory 195
4.4.1.2.1 Non-Probability Raising
Causation 196
4.4.1.2.2 Probability Raising
Non-Causation 197
4.4.1.3 Singular Probabilistic Causal Statements 199
4.4.1.4 Simpson’s Paradox 200
4.4.2 Assessing Probabilistic Climatic Causation 202
4.4.2.1 Climate Change Litigation and Probabilistic
Causation 202
4.4.2.2 Scientific Data, Probabilistic Causal Analysis
and Climate Cases 207
4.4.2.2.1 The Need for Scientific Results 207
4.4.2.2.2 On Terminological Coherency and
Methodological Discrepancies 208
4.4.2.2.3 The Dependency of Legal Assessments
on Scientific Evidence 209
4.4.3 Conclusion 211
4.5 Climatic-Specific Causation as an Emergent and Dynamic
Construct 212
4.5.1 Emission Share Causation Doctrine 213
4.5.1.1 The Tenets of the Market Share Liability
Doctrine 213
4.5.1.2 The Convergence of the Market Share
Liability Doctrine to Climatic Causation 215
4.5.1.2.1 From Market-Share
to Emission-Share 215
4.5.1.2.2 DES and Climate Change 215
4.5.1.2.3 Delineating a ‘Market’
for Emissions 218
4.5.1.2.4 Conceptualizing Causation Under
an Emission Share Approach 220
4.5.1.3 Conclusion 221
4.5.2 Contribution-Based Approach to Causation 221
4.5.2.1 The Substance of a Contribution-Based
Perception of Factual Causation 222
4.5.2.2 The Contribution-Based Approach in Practice 223
4.5.2.2.1 Domestic Approaches to Reduced
Standards of Causation 223
4.5.2.2.2 Regional and International Perceptions
of Reduced Causal Standards 232
4.5.2.2.3 Lessons Drawn from Domestic
and International Approaches to
Contributory Causation 236
4.5.2.3 Climate Case Studies 239
4.5.2.3.1 Massachusetts v. EPA 240
4.5.2.3.2 Native Village of Kivalina
v. Exxon Mobil et al. 241
4.5.2.3.3 Maniototo Environmental Society
v. Central Otago District Council 242
4.5.2.3.4 Family Farmers and Greenpeace
Germany v. Germany 243
4.5.2.4 Framing a Reduced Understanding
of Causation 244
4.5.2.4.1 The Substance of a
Contribution-Based Approach 244
4.5.2.4.2 The Metaphysical Interface
of a Lowered Conception
of Causation 246
4.5.2.4.3 Legislating Contributory
Causation 250
4.6 Summary of Findings 251
Climate Change Cases 253
Cases 254
References 255
5 Normative Causation 261
5.1 Normative Causation in the Law 261
5.2 Normative Implications for Causation 264
5.2.1 General Sources of Normativity 265
5.2.2 International Environmental Law 268
5.2.2.1 The Principle of Prevention 269
5.2.2.2 The Precautionary Principle 271
5.2.2.2.1 Disputing the Precautionary
Principle 271
5.2.2.2.2 The Substance of the Precautionary
Principle as an Interpretative
Device for the Assessment
of Normative Causation 273
5.2.2.3 The Polluter Pays Principle 276
5.2.2.4 The Concept of Common but Differentiated
Responsibilities 277
5.2.3 Climate Justice 279
5.2.3.1 Climate Justice as a Principle of Law 279
5.2.3.2 The Substance of Climate Justice 281
5.2.3.2.1 Distributive Justice 283
5.2.3.2.2 Corrective Justice 285
5.2.3.2.3 Procedural Justice 290
5.2.3.2.4 Social Justice 292
5.2.4 Implications for Normative Causation in Climate
Scenarios 294
5.3 The Principle of Foreseeability 295
5.3.1 Foreseeability as a General Principle of Normative
Causation 295
5.3.2 Foreseeability and Climate Change 298
5.3.2.1 The Scope of Foreseeability 298
5.3.2.1.1 The Right Vantage Point 298
5.3.2.1.2 The Standard of the Right
Observer 301
5.3.2.1.3 The Implementation of Special
Knowledge 303
5.3.2.1.4 The Extent of Foreseeability 305
5.3.2.2 Present-Day Foreseeability of Climate Change
and Climate Change-Induced Damage 310
5.3.2.3 Historic Emissions and the Timely Threshold
of Foreseeability 311
5.3.2.3.1 General Foreseeability
of Climate Change 312
5.3.2.3.2 Specific Foreseeability
of Climate Change Impacts 318
5.3.3 Conclusion 323
5.4 Materiality Threshold 324
5.4.1 Materiality as a General Principle of Normative
Causation 324
5.4.2 Materiality and Climate Change 325
5.4.2.1 The Need for a Causal Threshold 325
5.4.2.2 Status Quo of Materiality in Climate
Change Litigation 327
5.4.2.3 Setting a Causation Threshold 332
5.4.2.3.1 Emission-Based Causal Threshold 333
5.4.2.3.2 Threshold for Other Climate
Damaging Behaviour 343
5.4.3 Conclusion 344
5.5 Intervening and Superseding Causes 345
5.5.1 Intervening Causes as Normative Delimitation 345
5.5.2 Reconciling Climate Change and Intervening Causes 346
5.5.2.1 Natural Events 347
5.5.2.2 Human Actions 349
5.6 Theory of Adequacy 352
5.7 Theory of Proximate Cause 355
5.7.1 The General Perception of Proximate Cause 355
5.7.2 Climate-Relevant Particularities of the Theory
of Proximate Cause 357
5.7.2.1 The Spatial and Personal Proximity
of the Damage 357
5.7.2.2 Aligning Climate Change and the Theory
of Proximate Cause 359
5.8 Protective Scope of the Norm 363
5.9 Summary of Findings 368
Climate Change Cases 371
Cases 373
References 374
6 Distinguishing Different Cases of Applied Climatic Causation 38
6.1 Factual Causation 384
6.1.1 Civil Law Jurisdictions 384
6.1.2 Common Law Jurisdictions 385
6.1.3 Regional and International Jurisdictions 387
6.2 Normative Causation 388
6.2.1 Actor-Specific Differentiation 388
6.2.1.1 States 389
6.2.1.1.1 Foreseeability 389
6.2.1.1.2 Materiality 391
6.2.1.2 Multinational Corporations 394
6.2.1.2.1 Foreseeability 394
6.2.1.2.2 Materiality 396
6.2.1.3 Individuals 399
6.2.1.3.1 Foreseeability 400
6.2.1.3.2 Materiality 401
6.2.2 Area of Law and the Subject of Action 402
6.3 Summary of Findings 403
Climate Change Cases 404
References 405
List of Instruments 407
Appendices