Title page
Contents
Abstract / Résumé 4
1. Introduction 6
2. Definitions and related literature 7
3. The observed (explicit) CIF/FOB margins 9
4. Estimating non-observed CIF/FOB margins 13
5. Main insights from the database 22
6. Conclusions 26
References 27
Annex A 29
Annex B 31
Annex C 33
Annex D 35
Annex E 36
Table 1. Harmonised quantity units 15
Table 2. Accuracy measures by model 17
Table 3. Gravity model coefficients and comparison with the previous version of ITIC 18
Table 4. Inter- and intra-regional CIF/FOB margins, 2022 23
Table 5. Products associated with the lowest and highest CIF/FOB margins at the world level, 2022 25
Figure 1. Illustration of the FOB and CIF valuation 8
Figure 2. Observed CIF/FOB margins and share of world imports in sample by year 9
Figure 3. Observed CIF/FOB margins in Australia, Chile and the United States 10
Figure 4. Observed margins and share of import value across top five trading partners, 1995-2022 11
Figure 5. Imports from neighbouring and non-neighbouring partners: Observed CIF/FOB margins and share in total imports 12
Figure 6. Observed CIF/FOB margins: Inter- vs. intracontinental trade, 2002-2022 13
Figure 7. Calibration procedure: adjusting the estimated margins to fit the observed series 21
Figure 8. Global estimates of CIF/FOB margins 22
Figure 9. Estimates of CIF/FOB margins by region 23
Figure 10. CIF/FOB margins for G20 countries, average 1995 to 2022 24
Annex Tables
Table C.1. Aggregating predicted margins: six-digits into four-digits product codes 34
Table D.1. Countries lacking one or more regressors 35
Table E.1. Methodology codes used in ITIC 36
Annex Figures
Figure A.1. Source of the observed CIF/FOB margins and share of imports reported with both CIF and FOB valuations by country and year 30
Figure B.1. Identification and removal of year-specific inconsistencies 31