Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 3
Abstract 4
Résumé 5
List of Acronyms 8
Executive summary 10
1. Introduction 12
2. Context 13
2.1. Overview of current provisions on NDCs 13
2.2. Overview of GST1 outcomes on mitigation 15
2.3. Overview of follow-up from GST1 to inform the next round of NDCs 16
2.3.1. Follow-up provisions in the GST1 decision 16
2.3.2. Other follow-up opportunities in the UNFCCC process and beyond 18
3. Preparing enhanced NDCs informed by GST1 mitigation outcomes 20
3.1. Considerations for enhancing NDCs 20
3.2. Insights from Paris-consistent global emissions pathways for enhanced NDCs 24
3.2.1. Global CO₂ and GHG benchmarks in line with GST1 outcomes 24
3.2.2. Paris-consistent global/sectoral benchmarks supporting other mitigation related calls in the GST1 25
3.2.3. Other Paris-consistent global and sectoral benchmarks 28
3.2.4. Challenges and opportunities in using global and sectoral benchmarks and pathways to inform NDCs 28
3.3. Insights for increasing ambition in NDCs aligned with GST1 mitigation outcomes 30
3.3.1. Aligning NDCs with 1.5°C pathways and long-term strategies 30
3.3.2. Enhancing mitigation targets in NDCs to take forward GST1 outcomes 32
3.4. Insights for preparing implementation ready NDCs to support GST1 outcomes 35
3.4.1. NDC implementation plans 35
3.4.2. NDC investment plans 35
3.4.3. Whole-of-government approaches to NDC preparation and implementation 36
3.4.4. Whole-of-society, inclusive approaches to NDC preparation and implementation 37
4. Potential guidance on NDC features 38
5. Conclusions 42
References 49
Annex A. Non-exhaustive list of provisions related to characteristics of NDCs 57
Annex B. Paris-consistent global emission pathways 59
Annex C. Sectoral benchmarks from 1.5°C global emissions pathways 60
Table 3.1. Global economy-wide emission reductions consistent with Paris ambition and GST1 outcomes 25
Table 3.2. Quantified global benchmarks to support selected mitigation related calls in the GST1 26
Table 4.1. Some examples of potential further guidance on new issues or on existing elements that could be improved or clarified 40
Table 5.1. Follow-up provisions in the GST1 decision to support the next round of NDCs 44
Figure 2.1. Timeline of NDC submissions, 2015-2026 14
Figure 2.2. Follow-up provisions in the GST1 decision to support NDC preparations in 2024-2025 17
Figure 3.1. Understanding interlinkages between NDCs and other provisions in the Paris Agreement 20
Figure 3.2. Synergies between ambition, implementation, and finance in enhancing NDCs 22
Figure 4.1. Mitigation target types of NDCs by country development level 41
Figure 5.1. Potential elements of NDC enhancement 43
Boxes
Box 2.1. Selected mitigation focused calls in the GST1 outcome 16
Box 2.2. Selected national mechanisms and provisions linking the GST to domestic processes 19
Box 3.1. Supporting NDC enhancement - Experience of the NDC Partnership 23
Box 3.2. Examples of tools for national "fair share" assessments 30
Box 3.3. Insights from selected examples of aligning NDCs with the 1.5°C temperature goal 31
Box 3.4. Selected examples of aligning NDCs and long-term strategies and targets 32
Annex Tables
Table A.1. Selected provisions in CMA decisions related to characteristics of NDCs 57
Table C.1. Complementary global sectoral benchmarks for industry, transport, AFOLU and buildings to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals 60
Annex Figures
Figure B.1. Reference envelopes of scenarios in Paris-consistency criteria 59