Title page
Contents
ABSTRACT 4
ACRONYMS 7
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
INTRODUCTION 10
PRE-COUP AND POST-COUP SECURITY TRENDS 12
Expanding violence and its political fallout 12
Pre-coup and post-coup fatalities: Trends and patterns 13
Analysis of fatality trends 16
ESCALATORY YET INCONSISTENT COUNTERINSURGENCY POLICIES 18
CAUSES AND IMPACT OF FRANCE'S WITHDRAWAL POLICIES 20
Barkhane's strategic failures 20
The unfulfilled return of the state 22
JIHADIST STRATEGIES 23
PERSPECTIVES 25
REFERENCES 26
Figure 1. Armed conflict fatalities in Mali, 2016-23 13
Figure 2. Armed conflict fatalities in Burkina Faso, 2016-23 14
Figure 3. Armed Conflict Fatalities in Niger; 2015-23 15
Figure 4. Armed Conflict Fatalities in Mali's Menaka Region, 2016-23 16