Title page
Contents
1. Introduction 4
2. A Global fertiliser module for the Aglink-Cosimo model 7
3. Supply shortages scenario 8
3.1. Background 8
3.2. Results 10
3.3. Limitations 15
4. Fertiliser support in India scenario 16
4.1. Background 16
4.2. Results 17
4.3. Limitations 22
Annex A. A global fertiliser module for the Aglink-Cosimo Model 23
References 31
Table 4.1. Nutrient Base Subsidies for N, P, K (Rs per t) in 2022 17
Table 4.2. Elasticity of yield to fertiliser application, base rates 29
Figure 1.1. Fertiliser price index, Jan 2020 5
Figure 3.1. Countries' share of fertilisers use from 1961-2021, only showing countries appearing in the top 5 users 8
Figure 3.2. Major global fertiliser producers and average global shares of production between 2018-2021 9
Figure 3.3. Average quantities of nitrogen exported and imported between 2018 and 2021, million tonnes 9
Figure 3.4. Global fertiliser production, million tonnes 10
Figure 3.5. Global fertiliser supply, relative change to baseline 11
Figure 3.6. World fertiliser prices, relative change to baseline 11
Figure 3.7. Global fertiliser balance adjustments, 2025 12
Figure 3.8. Global yield impacts of supply shock scenarios, 2025 12
Figure 3.9. Global fertiliser balance: 1-year shock and 2-year shock, difference to baseline 13
Figure 3.10. Global crop yields: 1-year shock and 2-year shock, percentage difference to baseline 14
Figure 3.11. FAO food price index 14
Figure 4.1. Indian fertiliser prices paid by farmers, absolute difference scenario vs baseline 17
Figure 4.2. Indian fertiliser consumption by farmers, scenario vs baseline 18
Figure 4.3. Relative change of Indian yields in scenario vs baseline, 2030 19
Figure 4.4. Absolute change of Indian and African calorie balances in scenario vs baseline, 2030 19
Figure 4.5. Relative change of fertiliser consumption by farmers in the rest of the world, scenario vs baseline, 2030 20
Figure 4.6. Relative change of world prices in scenario vs baseline, 2030 20
Figure 4.7. Change of GHG emissions in scenario vs baseline, 2030 21