본 연구는 어떠한 특성의 상권이 더 안정적인가라는 질문으로부터 출발한다. 이에 선행연구에서 주목한 여러 상권 특성을 설명변수로 하는 데이터셋을 구축하고, 서울시를 대상으로 개별 상권의 어떠한 특성이 점포 생존율에 영향을 미쳤는지에 대해 정량적 분석을 수행하고자 한다.
Making retail areas stable and sustainable is critical for all stakeholders. Stability can be indicated by the survival rate defined as the percentage of not closed stores out of the total stores in the retail area. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of the spatial characteristics of retail areas on their stability. To achieve this aim, we calculated the survival rate of businesses for retail areas in Seoul and established the ordinary least squares and spatial regression model to simulate stability. The analysis was conducted by dividing the model into survival rates for all stores, franchise stores, and nonfranchise stores, assuming that retail area characteristics could be applied differently, depending on whether the store was a franchise store. The explanatory variables were the official types of retail area, the retail diversity index difference, franchise proportion difference, daytime population ratio, business duration, change in official land price rate from 2015 to 2019, and the Seoul district dummy variables. The study shows the following three results. First, spatial autocorrelation exists at the Gu level of Seoul, indicating a tendency to cluster but having a mutually competitive pattern at a smaller regional unit. Second, except for the change in the official land price, all explanatory variables show a significant correlation with the dependent variable. Third, we confirm that the retail area characteristics have a more significant influence on the stability of the nonfranchise store, and the entry of franchise stores reduces the stability of the nonfranchise store. This study is valuable, as the cross-sectional analysis reveals the characteristics that make a retail area a more stable urban space.