Title Page
Abstract
Contents
1. Introduction 10
Part Ⅰ. Economic Effect of Population Integration 14
2. Framework 14
2.1. Model 14
2.2. Equilibrium 17
2.3. Integration Regimes 17
3. Calibration 22
3.1. Demography 23
3.2. Technology 23
3.3. Endownment and Preference 26
3.4. Tax and Transfer 27
4. Analysis 28
4.1. Steady State Analysis 28
4.2. Transitional Dynamics 33
4.3. Welfare Analysis 43
Part Ⅱ. Sensitivity Analysis and Model Extension 46
5. Additional TFP Progress Scenarios of North Korea 46
6. Additional Projection Scenarios Considering Demographic Shock 50
7. Extension: Incomplete Market and Skill Difference 55
7.1. Framework 55
7.2. Calibration 60
7.3. Analysis 63
7.4. Referendum 66
8. Conclusion 71
References 74
요약 (국문초록) 77
Table 1. Parameters 22
Table 2. Human Capital Accumulation in North Korea 26
Table 3. Initial Steady States 28
Table 4. Final Steady States 30
Table 5. The Effect of Demographic Change in South Korea 31
Table 6. The Effect of Population Integration in South Korea 32
Table 7. Consumption Equivalence 44
Table 8. Additional Parameters 61
Figure 1. Old-age Dependency Ratio 11
Figure 2. Integration Regimes 18
Figure 3. Demographic Dynamics 23
Figure 4. Total Factor Productivity and Human Capital 24
Figure 5. Age-specific Labor Productivity and Labor Supply 25
Figure 6. Total Population and Dependency Ratio 35
Figure 7. Price Dynamics 37
Figure 8. Consumption Per Capita by Demographic Dynamics 38
Figure 9. Price Dynamics by Regimes 40
Figure 10. Consumption Per Capita by Regimes 42
Figure 11. Total Factor Productivity Progress Scenarios 47
Figure 12. Consumption Per Capita by TFP Scenarios 48
Figure 13. Total Fertility Rate and Life Expectation 51
Figure 14. Old-age Dependency ratio by Projection Scenarios 53
Figure 15. Consumption Per Capita by Projection Scenarios 54
Figure 16. Age-specific Labor Supply and Labor Productivity by Skills 57
Figure 17. Unskilled Labor Ratio Scenarios 60
Figure 18. Consumption Per Capita by Skills 62
Figure 19. Consumption Per Capita, Persistent Disparity(R4) VS Convergence(R4) 65
Figure 20. Referendum Result 67
Figure 21. Referendum Result by Unskilled Labor Ratio Scenarios 70