Title Page
Abstract
Contents
Chapter Ⅰ. Introduction 10
1.1. Background 10
1.2. Problem identification 12
1.3. Research questions and Research objectives 13
1.4. Thesis structure 14
Chapter Ⅱ. Status of the Mongolian Energy Sector 16
2.1. Energy sector in Mongolia 16
2.1.1. Heating sector in Mongolia 17
2.1.2. District heating system 19
2.2. Mongolian primary energy sources 21
2.2.1. Fossil fuels 21
2.2.2. Renewable energy 26
2.2.3. Low-carbon energy technologies 32
2.3. Government's current policy for renewable energy 34
2.4. Chapter summary 36
Chapter Ⅲ. Literature Review 37
3.1. Overview of decision-making analysis 37
3.2. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) 43
3.2.1. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) 43
3.2.2. Analytic Network Process (ANP) 44
3.2.3. Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solutions (TOPSIS) 44
3.2.4. Elimination and choice translating reality (ELECTRE) 44
3.2.5. Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) 45
3.2.6. Selection of method 45
3.3. Previous studies for barriers in the energy sector using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method 46
3.4. Chapter summary 47
Chapter Ⅳ. Methodology and Models 48
4.1. Methodological framework of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method 48
4.2. AHP Criteria Selection 52
A. Technical barriers 53
B. Economic barriers 53
C. Social barriers 54
D. Policy& Political barriers 54
4.3. Hierarchical structure 56
4.4. Chapter summary 57
Chapter Ⅴ. Analysis and Results 58
5.1. Empirical Analysis 58
5.1.1. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) survey 58
5.1.2. Data Collection 59
5.1.3. Software 61
5.2. Empirical result of main criteria 61
5.3. Empirical results of sub-criteria 62
A. Technical barriers 62
B. Economic barriers 63
C. Social barriers 65
D. Policy & Political barriers 66
5.4. Overall result 67
5.5. Discussion of results 70
5.6. Chapter summary 72
Chapter Ⅵ. Conclusion 73
6.1. Key findings 74
6.2. Policy implications 75
6.3. Limitations and Further Research 77
Bibliography 79
Appendices 90
Abstract (Korean) 99
Table 2-1. Energy generation 17
Table 2-2. Number of heat consumers 18
Table 2-3. Heat generation by power plants 20
Table 2-4. List of wind power plants 27
Table 2-5. List of solar power plants 28
Table 2-6. List of large-scale hydropower plants 30
Table 2-7. List of Renewable energy regulations 35
Table 3-1. Review of renewable energy adoption as low-carbon technologies study 40
Table 3-2. Summary of the PROS and CONS of MCDM methods 46
Table 4-1. Classification of nine-point scale 50
Table 4-2. Random index values by Thomas L. Saaty (1977) 51
Table 4-3. Classification of criteria 55
Table 5-1. An example of the pairwise comparison questionnaire 58
Table 5-2. Statistics by Experts' Organization 59
Table 5-3. Ranking of barriers main criteria 61
Table 5-4. Ranking of barriers in Technical barriers 63
Table 5-5. Ranking of barriers in Economic barriers 64
Table 5-6. Ranking of barriers in Social barriers 65
Table 5-7. Ranking of barriers in Policy & Political barriers 66
Table 5-8. Ranking of barriers in global 68
Figure 1-1. Thesis structure 15
Figure 2-1. Structure of Mongolian energy sector 16
Figure 2-2. Heating system in Mongolia 18
Figure 2-3. District heating system 19
Figure 2-4. Combined heat and power plant schema 19
Figure 2-5. District heating system in Ulaanbaatar 21
Figure 2-6. Coal basins in Mongolia 22
Figure 2-7. Coal production, domestic consumption and exports in Mongolia 23
Figure 2-8. Petroleum exploration blocks in Mongolia 24
Figure 2-9. Oil exploration and potential reserves in Mongolia 25
Figure 2-10. Wind energy resource map 26
Figure 2-11. Photovoltaic power potential map 27
Figure 2-12. Hydropower potential map 29
Figure 2-13. Geothermal potential map 30
Figure 2-14. Biomass potential map 31
Figure 4-1. Example of hierarchical tree/Structure 49
Figure 4-2. Methodology framework 52
Figure 4-3. Hierarchical structure 56
Figure 5-1. Statistics by Experts' Experience 61
Figure 5-2. Synthesize of criteria and priority 62
Figure 5-3. Synthesize of Technical barriers 63
Figure 5-4. Synthesize of Economic barriers 64
Figure 5-5. Synthesize of Social barriers 65
Figure 5-6. Synthesize of Policy & Political barriers 66
Figure 5-7. Global ranking 69