An officetel is a unique living space, which is mainly used for work, but refers to a building where accommodations are possible in some sections of the space. Therefore, officetels according to building regulations are business facilities that are not included in the calculation of housing-related statistics, while officetels that have recently been sold are not subject to the multi-unit housing subscription system, even though their purpose is high for residential purposes. 2013, apartment prices in Seoul have risen sharply, and jeonse prices have also risen together. In response, officetel is recognized as an alternative, and since 2019, officetel has also seen a sharp rise in price. also, housing supply rate in Seoul is 94.2%, so the housing shortage is still serious. Compared to other investment products, officetels can be invested in small amounts, and the number of single and two-person households is on the rise, so the preference for officetels is expected to increase in the long run.
This study, officetel sales price was selected as each individual dependent variable, and a vector error correction model was established to confirm mutual differences. Each was constructed and analyzed. Officetels have the characteristics of being built and supplied in downtown areas, that is, in commercial areas with convenient location conditions. Accordingly, in this study, the housing market in Seoul, where officetels are mainly supplied and sales and rental transactions are carried out smoothly, was limited to the spatial scope. For the temporal range, monthly time series data for each year from January 2018 to November 2022 were conducted as the subject of the study.
As a result of the cointegration test, both the macroeconomic model and the real estate model had cointegration in Seoul, so the analysis was conducted using the VEC model. A result of the Granger causal analysis, in the macroeconomic model, the producer price index was found to have an effect on the officetel sales price and to be related to the Granger. An officetel sales price was found to have a Granger effect by influencing the consumer price index, the amount of housing mortgage loan, and the prospect of job opportunities. The real estate model, it was found that there were no variables affecting the officetel sales price. However, it was found that the officetel sales price affected the monthly rent of officetel and the jeonse price of apartment, and thus was related to the Grandeur.
As a result of the shock response analysis, macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, money supply, housing mortgage loans, and land price fluctuation rate shocks had a positive(+) effect on the officetel sales price, while consumer price index, producer price index, and job opportunity outlook shocks had a negative(-) impact. had an impact. It can be expected to have an impact, and these results are the same as most previous studies. This can be seen that the flexibility of financing and procurement costs for officetel sales has a positive(+) effect on the officetel sales price. The real estate variables, the jeonse and monthly rent shocks, are expected to have a positive impact on officetel sales prices, while the shocks to apartment sales and jeonse prices are expected to have a negative impact. Like officetel jeonse, it was confirmed that it is a variable related to the officetel sales price by supporting the officetel sales price or by converting the rate of return. As a result, the rise in officetel monthly rent prices is shown by an increase in the number of people who want to switch to jeonse or individual ownership due to the burden of monthly rent, and this social form has a positive effect on officetel sales. price.
It can be seen that officetel sales prices, jeonse prices, and monthly rent prices are linked in a similar fashion. A result, there is still a view of officetel as a profitable type, so it seems that interest rates, yields, and market liquidity have a great influence on officetel sales prices.
As a result of dynamic analysis through variance decomposition analysis of officetel sales prices, macroeconomic variables that are standard for impact can be seen as being influenced by the amount of loans and money in the market, and real estate variables that are standard for impact are apartment sales prices, it is highly correlated with apartment jeonse prices, and it can be seen as a variable that explains officetel sales prices well with the explanatory power of officetel monthly rent prices.