Korea's housing market has been revitalized since the 1960s due to rapid economic growth and urbanization, but since the mid-2010s, housing prices have stabilized due to low growth, stagnant urbanization rates, and population decline, and demand for housing and investment has decreased. As a result, the real estate brokerage market is stagnating, and accordingly, the need for more reasonable and efficient real estate brokerage operation methods is increasing. In particular, real demand and investment demand are concentrated in the metropolitan area and have the greatest impact on the housing brokerage market, so research on this area is needed. In addition, since the metropolitan area shows heterogeneous market characteristics rather than homogeneous markets, measures are needed to consider regional characteristics. Based on this background, this study analyzes the factors affecting the housing sales market in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, and proposes ways to revitalize the housing brokerage market through this.
This study analyzed the data of the housing sales market in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2022. VECM (vector error correction model) was used for the analysis, and regional characteristic variables including macroeconomic variables and demographic structure characteristics were considered. The analysis results are divided into two parts: impact response analysis and predictive error variance decomposition analysis. These two analysis results were similar to each other, and the analysis results were summarized focusing on predictive error variance decomposition.
According to the results of this study, the variable with the greatest explanatory power for the change in the number of housing sales transactions in Seoul was the total population of Seoul, followed by interest rate, gross regional product, and population aged 65 or older. Interest rates and gross regional product tended to increase explanatory power as the time difference increased, while the proportion of the population aged 65 or older decreased explanatory power as the time difference increased. The explanatory power of the total population of Seoul increased rapidly at the beginning, and then maintained a gentle increase after parallax 7.
According to this study, the change in the number of housing sales transactions in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do is largely explained by various variables such as interest rate, total population, and population ratio over 65.
In the case of the Seoul Metropolitan Government, a drop in interest rates helps boost housing sales, which is due to a decrease in financial costs for housing purchases. Since the mid-2010s, the decline in Seoul's population leads to a decrease in housing demand, which affects the housing sales market. An increase in gross regional product boosts housing sales by increasing housing purchase capacity, but a decrease leads to a slowdown in the housing sales market. Finally, the increase in the population over 65 has a negative impact on the housing market.
In Gyeonggi-do, interest rates have the greatest explanation for the number of home sales transactions, because falling interest rates increase demand for home purchases. Population growth leads to an increase in housing demand, which has a positive effect on the housing sales market. On the other hand, the increase in the population aged 65 or older acts as a cause of a decrease in housing demand, negatively affecting the housing sales market. The increase in housing completion performance contributes to revitalizing the housing sales market.
The difference in the influence of interest rates in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do is believed to be due to the difference in housing price levels. In both regions, the proportion of the population aged 65 or older negatively affects the housing sales market, and the supply of new housing works differently depending on the characteristics of each region. Seoul is mainly supplied by redevelopment and reconstruction, while Gyeonggi Province is receiving large-scale new supplies by developing new cities.