Title Page
ABSTRACT
국문 초록
Contents
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 10
CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1. Theory of Superstars 12
2.2. Synthetic Control Method 13
CHAPTER 3. MODEL AND SIMULATION STUDY 17
3.1. Model Specification 17
3.1.1. Standard SCM (SSCM) 18
3.1.2. Augmented SCM (ASCM) 19
3.1.3. Modified SCM (MSCM) 20
3.1.4. Modified Augmented SCM (MASCM) 21
3.2. Simulation Study 22
3.2.1. Simulation Design 22
3.2.2. Simulation Results 22
CHAPTER 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 25
4.1. Background 25
4.2. Data and Model-free Evidence 27
4.3. Estimation Results 33
4.3.1. Main Analysis: Present (Periods 1 & 3) vs Absent (Period 2) 33
4.3.2. The Leaving-star Analysis (Period 1 vs Period 2) 35
4.3.3. The Returning-star Analysis (Period 2 vs Period 3) 37
4.4. Robustness Check 39
4.5. Extension to Other Star Players 40
CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION 42
REFERENCES 44
APPENDICES 47
A. Estimation Algorithms 47
A.1. SSCM and ASCM 47
A.2. MSCM and MASCM 48
B. Pre-treatment fits (RMSPEs) of SSCM, ASCM, MSCM and MASCM 49
C. Simulation Study in the Case of Large P 50
Table 1. Methodological positioning of this study 17
Table 2. Estimation results of SSCM and MSCM 24
Table 3. Mean (std. dev.) attendance of Lions and the rest teams in each period 28
Table 4. Descriptive summary of ticket price 31
Table 5. List of variables and their measures 32
Table 6. Posterior summary (main analysis) 34
Table 7. Posterior summary (leaving-star analysis) 36
Table 8. Posterior summary (returning-star analysis) 38
Table 9. Placebo test results 40
Table 10. Effect size measurements of Lee, Dae Ho and Lee, Byung Gyu's cases 42
Table B.1. Pre-treatment fits (RMSPE) 49
Table C.1. Estimation results of SSCM and MSCM with spike and slab prior 51
Figure 1. Plots of treated unit (solid line), synthetic unit (dotted line) and its 90% credible interval for SSCM and MSCM 25
Figure 2. Players' average WAR in Period 1 and Period 3 26
Figure 3. Hierarchical dendrogram of 18 players 27
Figure 4. Plot of annual average attendances of Lions and the rest teams 28
Figure 5. Plot of KBO monthly attendance 29
Figure 6. Plot of each team's ticket price 31
Figure 7. Plots of Lions (solid line), synthetic Lions (dotted line) and its 90% credible interval (main analysis) 35
Figure 8. Plots of Lions (solid line), synthetic Lions (dotted line) and its 90% credible interval (leaving-star analysis) 37
Figure 9. Plots of Lions (solid line), synthetic Lions (dotted line) and its 90% credible interval (returning-star analysis) 39
Figure C.1. Plots of treated unit (solid line), synthetic unit (dotted line) and its 90% credible interval for SSCM and MSCM with spike and slab prior 52