Title Page

Abstract

Contents

1. Introduction 9

2. Problem statement 10

2.1. Conditional Cash Transfers programs in Dominican Republic: characterization of the 'Progresando con Solidaridad' program 10

2.2. Background: origin and evolution of the program from 2000 to 2012 13

2.3. Consolidation of the Program after 2012 16

2.4. Policy outputs in the context of the Dominican Republic Labor Market 19

3. Literature review 24

3.1. Determinants of Labor Supply: neoclassical model of labor supply 24

3.2. Conditional Cash Transferences effects and Labor Supply 26

3.2.1. Cash transferences as social-policy devices 26

3.2.2. Emergence of Conditional Cash Transfers 27

3.2.3. Cash Transfers Programs relationship with labor output of beneficiary households 28

4. Antecedents 30

4.1. Studies about the Conditional Cash Transfers programs in Dominican Republic 30

4.2. Studies about labor market in Dominican Republic 31

4.3. Studies about effects of Conditional Cash Transfers on Labor Output 32

5. Methodology 34

5.1. Research questions and objectives 34

5.2. Research design and empiric strategy 35

5.3. Hypothesis map 37

5.4. Methods of the quantitative approach 37

5.4.1. Descriptive Statistics and aggregated data analysis 38

5.4.2. Econometric model 38

5.4.3. Application of repeated Cross-Sectional Analysis using time fixed effects 40

5.5. Methods of the qualitative approach 41

5.5.1. Identification of causal mechanisms by Generative Causation 41

5.5.2. Inter-organizational Analyses 42

5.6. Data and sources 43

5.7. Scope and limitations 43

6. Results 45

6.1. Description of the data and preliminary findings 45

6.2. Estimations of the econometric models 48

6.3. Application of propensity scores for the creation of the comparable groups 50

6.4. Interpretation of the results in the context of the Policy Governance Structure 56

6.4.1. Generative causation model 56

6.4.2. Inter-organizational analysis 58

7. Conclusions and recommendations 62

8. References 66

9. Abstract in Korean 71

TABLE 1. ORGANIZATIONS IN THE SOCIAL PROTECTION NETWORK (IN THE PROCESS OF CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERENCE DELIVERY) 11

TABLE 2. SOCIAL TRANSFERENCES IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 12

TABLE 3. LEGAL ENACTMENTS RELATED TO THE REORGANIZATION OF THE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE REFORM FROM 2004 TO 2007 15

TABLE 4. NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES HOUSEHOLDS IN THE PROGRESANDO CON SOLIDARIDAD PROGRAM COMPONENTS (PRELIMINARY NUMBERS, IN DECEMBER OF EACH YEARNOTE)[이미지참조] 17

TABLE 5. MATRIX OF QUESTIONS-OBJECTIVES-STRATEGY 36

TABLE 6. A CLASSIFICATION OF CAUSAL MECHANISMS. 42

TABLE 7. MONTHLY TOTAL WORKED HOURS OF POPULATION AGED 14 YEARS OR MORE, BY PARTICIPATION IN THE PROGRAM AND ACCORDING TO INCOME LEVEL OF THE POVERTY LINE, 2019-1 48

TABLE 8. RESULTS OF GLM FOR THE MODEL EQUATION, TOTAL POPULATION IN WORKING AGE (OLDER THAN 14 YEARS OLD) [MODEL 1] 49

TABLE 9. SUMMARY OF THE PROPENSITY MATCH ESTIMATION 51

TABLE 10. RESULTS OF THE MODEL UTILIZING PROPENSITY SCORES MATCHED GROUPS, TOTAL POPULATION IN WORKING AGE (OLDER THAN 14 YEARS OLD) [MODEL 2] 52

TABLE 11. ESTIMATIONS OF THE MODELS BY SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS CHARACTERISTICS 54

TABLE 12. REGRESSION WITH MATCHED DATA SET BY PROPENSITY SCORE FOR YEARS 2016-2019 [MODEL 6] 56

FIGURE 1. (A & B). BUDGET TRENDS OF ORGANIZATION RELATED TO THE PROGRESANDO CON SOLIDARIDAD PROGRAM 18

FIGURE 2. PARTICIPATION RATE BY GENDER, FIRST TRIMESTER 2016 TO FIRST TRIMESTER 2021 19

FIGURE 3. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, BY TRIMESTER 2016-2021(FIRST TRIMESTER), BY DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 20

FIGURE 4. POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATIO AT $5.50 A DAY (2011 PPP) (% OF POPULATION), DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2000-2019 21

FIGURE 5. TOTAL LABOR INFORMALITY AS PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL EMPLOYED POPULATION, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2014-2019 23

FIGURE 6. REPRESENTATION OF TWO INDIFFERENCE CURVES OF WORK-LEISURE 25

FIGURE 7. THE EFFECTS OF A CHANGE OF NON-LABOR INCOME ON HOURS OF WORK (INCOME EFFECT) 25

FIGURE 8. DIAGRAM OF RESEARCH APPROACHES AND TOOLS TO BE USED IN THE THESIS RESEARCH PROJECT 36

FIGURE 9. HYPOTHESIS MAP 37

FIGURE 10. AVERAGE MONTHLY TOTAL WORKED HOURS (TWH) IN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, BY QUARTER (2016-2021) 45

FIGURE 11. PARTICIPATION IN THE PROGRAM ACCORDING TO GENDER BY YEAR 46

FIGURE 12. DISTRIBUTION OF MONTHLY TOTAL WORKED HOURS, POPULATION OLDER THAN 14 YEARS OLD, NOT RECEIVING ANY GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY 47

FIGURE 13. DISTRIBUTION OF MONTHLY TOTAL WORKED HOURS, POPULATION OLDER THAN 14 YEARS OLD, RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY 47

FIGURE 14. PROPOSED THEORY OF CHANGE FOR THE 'PROGRESANDO CON SOLIDARAD' PROGRAM, FOCUSED ON THE LABOR OUTPUT OF INDIVIDUALS OF BENEFICIARY HOUSEHOLDS 57

FIGURE 15. SIMPLIFIED ORGANIZATIONAL CHART OF SELECTED GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RELATED TO SOCIAL PROTECTION POLICY AND THE LABOR MARKET 60