The purpose of this study is to find risk factors inherent in housing development projects according to the development scale, and to present risk management measures that can minimize the risks. To this end, a theoretical system was established for the risks inherent in housing development projects by stage and size of housing development. For the statistical analysis of the derived risks, AHP analysis was conducted in the first stage.
As a result, weights were set through comparison of important points among risk factors and relative importance was analyzed.
In the second stage, fuzzy analysis, a comprehensive evaluation method, was conducted. At this time, after obtaining the absolute importance by applying the fuzzy measure, the relative importance and absolute importance figures were again corrected through the fuzzy measure, and the priority of the overall risk was selected.
As a result of the analysis, in the 'management and operation stage', 'constructor's responsible completion capability' was found to be the most important risk factor.
Next, in the 'development planning stage' of housing development with a gross floor area of less than 2,000㎡, the risk of 'failure in balance analysis due to an error in the price available for supply' was analyzed as the most important. And, in the 'development preparation stage', 'unsecured funds for completion' through project financing was found to be important.
Also, in the development stage, 'increase in cost due to selection of non-performing contractors and completion of construction' was important.
In the end, in the 'operational stage of management', 'the ability of the contractor to complete the responsibility' was the most important risk factor. Lastly, in the development of housing with a gross floor area of 2,000㎡ or more, in the 'development planning stage', 'excessively priced land for construction' was analyzed as the most important factor, and there was a difference.
In the 'preparation stage of development', 'unsecured funding for completion' through project financing was important, and in the development stage, 'increase in cost due to the selection of an insolvent construction company and completion of construction' was important. In the operation stage of management, 'the ability of the contractor to complete the project with responsibility' was the most important risk factor. Overall, it was revealed that there were differences by size in the development planning stage and management operation stage.
Therefore, when developing housing, it is necessary to carefully consider risk factors in the 'planning stage of development' and 'operation stage of management'.
This was analyzed to be the same as 'differences in the Fuzzy-AHP importance analysis results correcting the relative importance of AHP using the Fuzzy measure'.
However, when looking at the overall importance, it was revealed that there was a clear difference in risk factors.
As a result of the 'Fuzzy-AHP Comprehensive Importance Analysis', the most important risk factor in housing development with a gross floor area of less than 660㎡ was 'unsecured funds for completion through project financing'. And, the most important risk factor in housing development with a gross floor area of less than 2,000㎡ was 'excessive price of land for construction'.
Finally, it was analyzed that securing equity was the most important risk factor for housing development with a gross floor area of 2,000㎡ or more. In other words, it was found that there are differences in risk factors that are considered important depending on the scale of housing development even for housing developments of the same nature.
Therefore, the big implication of this study is that risk management measures should be considered differently depending on the size of housing development.
This study tried to secure reliability and objectivity of risk factors by collecting quantitative data as well as correcting qualitative data in order to avoid errors in subjective judgment of risks that could be biased by practical experience and knowledge over a long period of time.
In addition, in analyzing the importance of risk factors related to housing development projects, it can be said that the reliability of the study is higher because interviews were conducted targeting practitioners who had been engaged in the real estate development business for more than 15 years.
Therefore, it can be said that this study has sufficient research value because it can serve as an important guideline for decision-making of all participants involved in housing development projects.