Since the 2000s, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, the metropolitan area, have become national real estate indicators, and real estate policies have been pouring in around the metropolitan area. Similar trends between indicators in the metropolitan area can be used in the same context, but in the case of Jeollabuk-do, a non-urban area, there are some differences in the relationship between variables due to the unique characteristics of each region.
Considering this situation, this study conducted nationwide data and comparative analysis targeting apartment sales prices in Jeollabuk-do. In addition, we analyzed macroeconomic variables, considering that using many variables can distort implications and make it difficult to identify interrelationships, and analyzed the relationship by extracting variables suitable for the purpose of Jeollabuk-do apartment sales price index, economic growth rate, interest rate, total currency index, and Jeollabuk-do population.
In this study, it is limited to the apartment market in Jeollabuk-do, and the effect of changes in the macroeconomic environment on the local housing market is verified. To find out the relationship and impact of economic variables and the real estate market, the analysis method used from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2021 used a vector error correction model (VECM) that assumes a long-term equilibrium relationship between variables while being used for factor analysis of multiple time series data. The analysis results are divided into identifying the degree and shape of the influence of variables through impact response analysis by the characteristics of the analysis model, and evaluating the influence of each variable by explaining the response of individual variables through predictive error variance analysis. It is judged that the change in apartment sales price in Jeollabuk-do has high explanatory power over the entire period of its own factors. Therefore, among the factors affecting the fluctuations in apartment sales prices in Jeollabuk-do, the total currency has the highest explanatory power for the fluctuations in apartment sales prices in Jeollabuk-do, followed by the consumer price index, interest rate, economic growth rate, and the total population in Jeollabuk-do.
First, the increase in total currency volume is judged to be a factor that increases apartment prices due to the influx and outflow of population due to the influx of external investment demand and the movement between cities and provinces.
Second, the increase in the consumer price index is closely related to the increase in housing prices due to the increase in housing-related costs, and it is considered a factor in increasing demand because consumers of the increasing generation have a higher desire to own homes for traditional inflation hedges.
Third, while interest rates also show some influence, falling interest rates increase investment and increase production and employment. This progress leads to inflation and affects apartment demand.
As analyzed in the studies so far, the influence variables on the apartment sales price index were high in Jeollabuk-do in addition to the interest rate and currency volume verified in previous studies, and the economic growth rate and the degree of influence on the total population of Jeollabuk-do were somewhat shown.
In addition, large industrial facilities concentrated in new cities for stable living and good environment in Jeollabuk-do affected the increase in apartment prices due to relocation of new cities in Jeonju and innovative cities.
Through this study, it is necessary to prepare for a sharp rise in prices by predicting whether redevelopment and reconstruction projects will be carried out, and analyzing the housing sales price index, which is a real estate price, in consideration of the regional economic outlook and regional characteristics variables in Jeollabuk-do.