The purpose of this study was to derive factors influencing the price of commercial real estate in Gwangju, where urban regeneration projects are actively carried out, and to suggest implications from the perspective of investment and policy.
As an analysis method, since commercial real estate, one of the economic goods, has microscopic variables such as location and physical characteristics, macro and population variables, dynamic panel analysis was used to include these cross-sectional data and time series data in the model.
Based on the analysis results, the implications of this study are as follows. First, in the case of the general commercial real estate market in Gwangju, the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and population growth also positively affect prices, but considering that the market vacancy rate is not low, the high number of floors seems to have a negative effect on prices.
Second, it is estimated that there is a leak demand in which consumption flows out to external areas even if the economically active population increases and consumption capacity increases due to improved accessibility to the metropolitan area.
Third, the commercial real estate market in the new city has been developed 20 years ago, and the aging of existing buildings according to the construction year and the large building area due to the high vacancy rate negatively affects prices.
Fourth, unlike the results of the overall model analysis, the consumer price index shows a negative effect, which can be interpreted as not acting as an inflation hedge in the case of commercial real estate in the new city, reflecting uncertainties in future value due to continued economic downturn.
Fifth, the commercial real estate market in the old city center has undergone a lot of population outflow and aging, but positive perception in terms of future value has increased as the environment has been improved by urban regeneration projects that began in 2016. In addition, unlike old new urban areas, commercial real estate in the old city is increasing the role of inflation hedging and land prices due to the positive outlook for the future value of the old city center through urban regeneration.
Sixth, in the case of the old city center, it is judged that the price merit of commercial real estate increases mainly in the back side road area with severe old age due to the characteristics of urban regeneration that prioritize areas with high old age.
Finally, from the perspective of investment and policy in the metropolitan commercial real estate market, unlike new towns created 20 years ago, the old downtown commercial real estate market, where various resources such as policy funds are invested to revitalize urban regeneration. In addition, considering the analysis results, it is judged that the investment value of modernized commercial real estate is higher than that of a large commercial real estate. In terms of policy, the development of new towns, including metropolitan cities, which have stagnated or declined population, can negatively affect the commercial real estate market as well as the residential real estate market, so it is necessary to approach overall regional growth and development.