Title Page
ABSTRACT
Contents
Chapter one. Introduction 12
Background to the study 12
Statement of the problem 13
Significance of Study 14
Standardized Precipitation Index as appropriate tool 16
The purpose of the study 20
The Research Main Objective 20
Research questions 21
Chapter Two. Literature Review 22
Evolution for Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 22
Status of drought globally 23
Status of drought in Sub-Saharan Africa 26
Drought status in Tanzania 27
Impact of drought on agriculture in Africa 30
Drought Management in Tanzania 34
Application of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 39
Chapter Three. Methods and Material 44
Description of the study area 44
Location and Size 44
Climate 45
Vegetation cover 45
Data Set 46
Statistical analysis 47
Chapter Four. Results and Discussions 49
Results 49
The- Three Month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) 50
Drought probability results of SPI6 for Serengeti district RCP 8.5 from 1900 to 2100(이미지참조) 53
Drought probability results of SPI₁₂ for Serengeti district RCP 4.5 from 2018 to 2100 58
Drought probability results of SPI₁₂ for Serengeti district RCP 8.5 from 2018 to 2100 59
Discussion of Results 63
Probability of drought based on SPI for Serengeti district between 2018 and 2100 63
Effects of drought on major crops, livestock and National Parks between 2018-2100 65
Mitigations strategies 70
General impacts of drought in Serengeti district as a part of Tanzania Mainland 73
Chapter Five. Conclusion and Recommendations 74
Conclusions 74
Recommendations 74
Thesis limitations 75
Future Research 76
Reference 78
APPENDIX 93
요약 98
Table 4.1. Frequency and magnitude of severe and extreme drought for three... 54
Table 4.2. Summary of severe and extreme drought of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for... 57
Table 4.3.Summary of severe and extreme drought of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for... 62
Fig 3.1. Map of Serengeti District 45
Fig 4.1. Three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) for Serengeti... 51
Fig 4.2. Evidence of how severe and extreme drought (SPI₃) at RCP 4.5... 52
Fig 4.3. Three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI₃) for Serengeti... 54
Fig 4.4. Six-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) for Serengeti...(이미지참조) 55
Fig 4.5. Evidence of severe and extreme drought (SPI6) at RCP 4.5 between...(이미지참조) 56
Fig 4.6. Six-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) for Serengeti... 57
Fig 4.7. Twelve-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI₁₂) for Serengeti... 59
Fig 4.8. Evidence of Extreme drought (SPI₁₂) at RCP 4.5 between 1900-2100 60
Fig 4.9. Twelve-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI12) for... 61
Fig 4.10. Twelve-month (SPI12) for Serengeti district from 1900-2100... 62