Title Page
Abstract
Contents
I. INTRODUCTION 15
1.1. Background 15
1.2. Research Problem 17
1.3. Research Question 18
1.4. Research Objective 18
1.5. Scope of the Study 18
II. LITERATURE REVIEW 19
2.1. Direct Investment 19
2.1.1. Scope of Direct Investment 19
2.1.2. Scope of Direct Investment's Sectors 20
2.2. Panel Data Analysis 22
2.2.1. Common Effects Model 23
2.2.2. Fixed Effects Model 23
2.2.3. Random Effects Model 24
2.2.4. Chow Test 25
2.2.5. Hausman Test 25
2.3. Spatial Weights Matrix 26
2.4. Spatial Analysis 27
2.4.1. Global Spatial Autocorrelation 28
2.4.2. Local Spatial Autocorrelation 30
2.4.3. Lagrange Multiplier Test 30
2.4.4. Spatial Lag Model 31
2.4.5. Spatial Error Model 31
III. METHODOLOGY 34
3.1. Data 34
3.2. Methodology 35
IV. ANALYSIS 37
4.1. General Overview of Variables 37
4.1.1. Sectoral Investment of Indonesia 37
4.1.2. Regional Gross Domestic Product 54
4.1.3. Labor Absorption 62
4.1.4. Level of Education 69
4.1.5. Provincial Minimum Monthly Wage 72
4.1.6. Infrastructure: Port and Airport 75
4.1.7. Infrastructure: Length of Road 78
4.2. Panel Data Analysis 82
4.2.1. Primary Sector 82
4.2.2. Secondary Sector 84
4.2.3. Tertiary Sector 86
4.3. Spatial Panel Data Analysis 87
4.3.1. Global and Local Autocorrelation of Sectoral Investment 91
4.3.2. Spatial Panel Model of Sectoral Investment 98
V. POLICY IMPLICATION 103
5.1. Increasing of Labor Quality 104
5.2. Infrastructure Development 108
5.3. Investment Priority Sectors 110
VI. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 112
6.1. Conclusion 112
6.2. Recommendation 113
BIBLIOGRAPHY 115
APPENDICES 117
요약 120
Table 2.1. Structure of Panel Data 23
Table 2.2. Structure of Spatial Panel Data 28
Table 2.3. Development of Spatial Panel Model 32
Table 4.1. Primary Sector Investment of Indonesia 41
Table 4.2. Secondary Sector Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 45
Table 4.3. Tertiary Sector Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 50
Table 4.4. Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011-2015 55
Table 4.5. Analysis of Panel Data in Primary Sector Investment 83
Table 4.6. Test of Panel Data Analysis in Primary Sector Investment Model 84
Table 4.7. Analysis of Panel Data in Secondary Sector Investment 85
Table 4.8. Test of Panel Data Analysis in Secondary Sector Investment Model 86
Table 4.9. Analysis of Panel Data in Tertiary Sector Investment 87
Table 4.10. Test of Panel Data Analysis in Tertiary Sector Investment Model 87
Table 4.11. Global Spatial Autocorrelation in Primary Sector Investment 91
Table 4.12. Local Spatial Autocorrelation in Primary Sector Investment 92
Table 4.13. Global Spatial Autocorrelation in Secondary Sector Investment 93
Table 4.14. Local Spatial Autocorrelation in Secondary Sector Investment 94
Table 4.15. Global Spatial Autocorrelation in Tertiary Sector Investment 96
Table 4.16. Local Spatial Autocorrelation in Tertiary Sector Investment 96
Table 4.17. Assumptions of Sectoral Investment Models 99
Table 4.18. Spatial Panel Specification Model 99
Table 4.19. Spatially Lagged Dependent Variable and Spatial Random Effects 100
Figure 1.1. Investment Composition and Target 16
Figure 2.1. Direct Investment Sectors 21
Figure 2.2. Contiguity Matrix N x N 26
Figure 2.3. Contiguity Matrix 7 x 7 after Row-Standardized 27
Figure 2.4. The Relationship between Different Spatial Dependence Models for Cross-Section Data 33
Figure 3.1. Dependent and Independent Variables 35
Figure 3.2. Research Design 36
Figure 4.1. Direct Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 37
Figure 4.2. Top Five Countries Invested in Indonesia 2011-2015 38
Figure 4.3. Sectoral Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 39
Figure 4.4. Sectoral Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 39
Figure 4.5. Primary Sector Investment by Subsector 2011-2015 42
Figure 4.6. Growth of Primary Sector Investment by Subsector 2011-2015... 42
Figure 4.7. Primary Sector Investment by Province 2011-2015 43
Figure 4.8. Growth of Investment Primary Sector by Province 2011-2015(CAGR) 44
Figure 4.9. Secondary Sector Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 46
Figure 4.10. Growth of Secondary Sector Investment by Subsector 2011-2015... 47
Figure 4.11. Secondary Sector Investment by Province 2011-2015 48
Figure 4.12. Growth of Secondary Sector Investment by Province 2011-2015... 49
Figure 4.13. Tertiary Sector Investment of Indonesia 2011-2015 50
Figure 4.14. Growth of Tertiary Sector Investment by Subsector 2011-2015... 51
Figure 4.15. Tertiary Sector Investment by Province 2011-2015 52
Figure 4.16. Growth of Tertiary Sector Investment by Province 2011-2015... 53
Figure 4.17. Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011 and 2015 56
Figure 4.18. Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011-2015 by Sector 57
Figure 4.19. Primary Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011-2015 by Province 58
Figure 4.20. Secondary Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011-2015 by Province 60
Figure 4.21. Tertiary Gross Domestic Product of Indonesia 2011-2015 by Province 61
Figure 4.22. Labor Absorbed by Sectoral Investment 62
Figure 4.23. Labor Absorbed by Primary Sector 63
Figure 4.24. Labor in Investment Primary Sector 2011-2015 by Province 64
Figure 4.25. Labor Absorbed by Primary Sector 65
Figure 4.26. Labor in Investment Secondary Sector 2011-2015 by Province 66
Figure 4.27. Labor Absorbed by Tertiary Sector 67
Figure 4.28. Labor in Investment Tertiary Sector 2011-2015 by Province 68
Figure 4.29. Formal School Participation Rate of Indonesia 2015 70
Figure 4.30. Average of Formal School Participation Rate by Province 71
Figure 4.31. Minimum Monthly Wage of Indonesia 2011-2015 73
Figure 4.32. Minimum Monthly Wage of Indonesia by Province 2011-2015(IDR) 74
Figure 4.33. Port Availability by Province 76
Figure 4.34. Main Port Performance by Province 2011-2015 77
Figure 4.35. Paved Road of Indonesia 2011-2015 79
Figure 4.36. Paved Road by Province 2011-2015 80
Figure 4.37. Ratio of Paved Road and Its Area by Province 2011-2015 81
Figure 4.38. Six Economic Corridors Based on MP3EI 90
Figure 4.39. Moran's I Scatter Plot of Investment in Primary Sector 93
Figure 4.40. Moran's I Scatter Plot of Investment in Secondary Sector 95
Figure 4.41. Moran's I Scatter Plot of Investment in Tertiary Sector 98
Figure 5.1. List of Skill and Training Class Offered by the Government 104
Figure 5.2. Primary Ratio of Labor-Investment 106
Figure 5.3. Secondary Ratio of Labor-Investment 106
Figure 5.4. Tertiary Ratio of Labor-Investment 107
Figure 5.5. Funding Proportion Target of Infrastructure Projects 110
Figure 5.6. Investment Priority Sectors 111