Recently, Japan has been maintaining the Defence Policy with frameworks of 'Peace Constitution, Exclusive Defence, Three Non-Nuclear Principles', which have been maintained after World War II, externally. However, internally, Japan had transformed its defence policy into exclusive defence until 1990, into area defence after melting Cold War System in 1990, and into global defence by changes of global strategy after 9.11. Hereupon, Japan has expanded a goal of its defence policy by including not only defending Japan (prevention of direct danger and minimization of damages), but also improving international security environment (controlling occurrence of international threats). For doing so, Japan has been expanding its security ability.
Unfortunately, as Japan adopts Exclusive Defence, Three Non-Nuclear Principles and Non-Military Superpower, and a principle that within 1% of GDP is using for defence expenses related to the Article 9 of the Constitution, it is impossible to adopt Active·Offensive Defence Strategy in principle, and to build up military. It is also difficult to increase a budget for defence to build up military.
However, Japan has been steadily reinforcing its security ability. Some have mentioned that the foundations of Japanese Defence Policy that is Exclusive Defence, Three Arms Export Principles, and Three Non-Nuclear Principles need to be revised. And, some have asserted that Three Non-Nuclear Principles have to be reconsidered. Also, the subjects, which can be important turning points to upgrade Japanese military power such as determination to introduce MD (Missile Defence) and propulsion a policy for integrated operation of Sea Air Land Self Defence Forces, have been promoted.
The first factor, which promotes to reinforce Japanese security ability, is Japanese perceptions change about external threats. During the Cold-War period, Japan didn't respond to threats from neighboring countries sensitively. However, recently the response to the threats from neighboring countries has been turned up differently.
Japan has participated in MD policy on the pretext of a North Korean missile test, and it has been promoting to build up high war potential under the pretext that it is preparing for Chinese military buildup.
Second, global strategy of the United States has been changed. America has been strongly asserting a pursuit of 'American values by power' in a report of National Security Strategy, which was prepared and announced after 9.11 terror. Under this cardinal principle, America has been proclaimed that it will devise all means including preemptive attacks to protect the world against the threat of terrorism. Since this change of American military doctrine has influenced on the Japanese defence policy, an outlook of the Japanese security strategy has been changed unprecedentedly as Japan may be going to attack preemptively in case that other countries prepare to launch missiles into Japan.
Like above, Japan has been promoting to expand the security ability by reasons that a recognition of security anxiety has been increased because of North Korean nuclear missile threats and America has demanded to expand a role of the Security. However, these are somewhat ostensible reasons, and the mind to contain China may be based on them to secure 'Normal State' and to hold the leadership within the area.
The followings are directions that Japan is promoting to expand its security ability; (a) Reforming the system to secure the buildup of the war potential and military power operation as a normal state, (b) reforming an organization related to the security to reconsider responsiveness and efficiency, and (c) reinforcing the U.S. Japanese Alliance and expanding military cooperation with other countries within the area.
Also, to wipe out neighboring nations' anxiety and to avoid offensive arms limitation by the Constitution, it has been promoting the buildup of an "iceberg" war potential, which prevents exposure of the buildup of war potential as an iceberg is exposed only 30% on the surface of the water. From the side of contents of the buildup of war potential, the state of building up qualitatively high war potential, which is an alternative type of the existing equipments, rather than the state of building up war potential of the navy air force and quantitative expansion up to the level that remarkably transcends the exclusive defence, has been perceived.
As an influence of a tendency of expanding the Japanese military ability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia Security, firstly, the positive side is that deterrence capability against North Korea is improved by smooth adaption of the Self-Defence Forces' rear supporting for additional American troops in emergency situations on the peninsula on the assumption that the buildup of war potential is promoted within a frame of reinforcing U.S.-Japan Alliance. By doing so, in the long term, it can obstruct a breakdown of the balance of the military power within the area followed by China shock, and it can contribute to a strategic advantage viewpoint of friendship influence of other countries.
However, as it contains various negative sides, in case that to introduce high war potential such as F-22 is actualized, it can cause inequality of war potential within the area. Also, uncertainty of security environments may be deepened because consecutive competition of army expenditure is excited, military cooperation between China and Russia can be close and a cold war conflict structure between 「America·Japan versus China·Russia」 may be reconstructed. Also, as Japan's normal state reinforces conservatism, illiberal nationalism may be prevalent in the East Asia, as a result, friction among countries within the area because of history recognition and territory problems may be caused.
Consequently, based on the analysis about expansion of Japanese military ability mentioned above, the matters that we have to prepare are as follows. From the national side, by taking the variable, North Korea into account that it may act as a major factor, which promotes the expansion of the Japanese military ability, we have to make an effort to control appropriate actions of North Korea and to settle down a policy on Korean Unification in early stage. For preparing for possibility that Japan will be risen as "potential threatening nation" by promoting a rapid military expansion, we have to pursue a stable development of Korea-U.S. Alliance, reconsider a military transparency and make an active effort to build up 「Multilateral Security System」 to solve conflicts between countries.
From the side of national defence, we have to restrain the buildup of Japan's war potential, which can change the balance of military power in East Asia, by military foreign policy channel, and we also have to select exact roles for Korea·U.S. Mutual Alliance.
Also, a plan to secure restrictive control, which analyzed whether our plan of securing war potential is proper for protecting national interests related to Dokdo and EEZ, and considered national power, has to be provided.