He purpose of this research is to define the determinate elements of nuclear development of Pakistan, Iran and North Korea which are enforcing the development of nuclear against many sanctions and objections from surrounding countries and powerful countries including US, since Post Cold-war. It is sure that many elements were mutually activated to determine the nuclear development in complicated and various ways. Moreover, there were many changes according to the changes of international relations and the international security circumstances in Post Cold-war. For that reason, on this research, it is going to find out which elements acted dominantly and how its activations were changed at the nuclear development of these 3 countries.
This thesis is constituted of 5 chapters. The chapter 1, the introduction, contains the purpose, scope and method of the research.
The chapter 2, the consideration about the theory of nuclear development, investigated the conception, limitation of technical, motivate, linkage theory to analyze the reason and motive of the 3 countries' nuclear developments. In the result of the former investigation, the motivation theory is the most permanent to explain the determinate elements of nuclear development for the 3 countries. Also, establish the frame of analysis by reconstitution the "determinate element of nuclear development" by William C. Potter in viewpoint of motivation theory.
The chapter 3, the actual condition of the 3 countries nuclear development, overlook the level and progress of the nuclear development as a fundamental work for analyzing. Plus, it covers their co-operate relations about the development of missiles as the tool for transportation of nuclear weapon.
The chapter 4, the analysis of the determinate elements for the 3 countries, analyzes the incentive, promotion, and deterrence factors for nuclear development. Especially observed the changes of determinate elements for each country by comparing Cold-war and Post Cold-war periods.
The chapter 5, the conclusion, firstly, analyzes with comparing the elements acting in common and to the 3 countries and that of acting differently by each country, through synthesize the results which come from chapter 4. Secondly, studies the changing trend of the elements of nuclear development by comparing Cold-war and Post Cold-war periods.
The result of research tells the Pakistan completed the development of uranium bomb through uranium enrichment and plutonium bomb through re-processing of used nuclear fuel. Futhermore, it already possesses several nuclear weapons. In case of Iran, it is still on the process of developing the weapon with support of Pakistan. The North Korea already has the plutonium bomb and is on the process of developing the uranium bomb with support of Pakistan same as the case of Iran. The 3 countries all have many intermediate and long range ballistic missiles and enough aerial assets as the measure of nuclear transportation. A special feature is the 3 countries have a tendency to co-operate each other in part of nuclear and missile development.
Moreover, according to the analysis results, the incentive and promotion factors operate superior to deterrence factor to the nuclear development of the 3 countries as Potter presented on his theory. However the deterrence factor could not operate properly, and shows the tendency of promoting a little.
First of all, in case of Pakistan, in Cold-war period, deterrence of threat from India the enemy country overcome the inferiority m conventional weapon through investigating nuclear weapon as symmetric strength pressure and support of people and military authority, such international security elements operate the important role. After Post Cold-war, add to upper causes, extend influence power of South Asia are and Islam region weaken the national security commitments of established allies use as big card of negotiation and politic to India and surrounding powerful countries(US, China, etc), such international political elements operate the decisive role. In case of Pakistan, the international security elements after Post Cold-war and many international political elements caused to determine the nuclear development.
An instance of Iran, in Cold-war period, threat from Iraq the enemy country the need of asymmetric strength against Iraq's chemical weapon traditional ideology of Islam and pressure from unique structure of power, such national security and international political elements played as big role. But, after Post Cold-war, these elements got weakened and international political elements such as influence and raise of nation's phase in the Middle East and Islam region use as the big card for negotiation with powerful countries(US, EU, etc), acted strongly, In conclusion, in case of Iran, almost same as that of Pakistan and North Korea futhermore the result shows that Iran would not give up the nuclear development, and continues the process under concealment or delaying through negotiation and diplomacy.
At last, the case of North Korea in Cold-war period, threat from ROK and especially US overcome the inferiority of conventional military strength according to the development of ROK's economy stature and enhancement of US Armed Forces in Korea the tactical nuclear weapon in US army in ROK pressure from military authority about building up the succession system of Kim lung-Il, such national security and political elements were important. After Post Cold-war, because of the changes from international relations and international security circumstances, additionally, card for negotiation and diplomacy with US weaken the security commitment of China and Russia, operates as decisive elements. On the contrast, the elements of nuclear militarized did not do the job according to withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapon and Korean Peninsula Non-Nuclear Joint Declaration announced on 1990's, and after Mr. Kim got a power on political party, government, and military as the Supreme Commander and General Secretary, the national crisis and pressure element were weakened relatively. That means, in case of North Korea, international political element is the most powerful fact.
According to the analysis results for those 3 countries, In Cold-war period, they determined to develop the nuclear weapon to deter the direct threat from enemy countries in international security disposition and to overcome the inferiority in conventional strength by keeping nuclear weapon as the asymmetric military power. At the same time, in viewpoint of national politic, the crisis in their own countries and pressures from people and military authority took the dominant place for developing nuclear weapon. However, after Post Cold-war period, the threat from other countries and the need of overcoming the gap of military strength did affect a little same as In Cold-war period, international political elements affected more powerfully than the others. So, they develop the nuclear weapon to enhance their positions and power of influence in international relation, to use it as a negotiation tool to deal with powerful countries.
Through this research, such outcomes were found. Firstly, it figured out the 3 countries' specific level of possession and capability of nuclear weapon, especially their co-operating relationship in missile part. Secondly, the theory of William C. Potter was enough to persuade that "If the incentive and promotion factors are superior to deterrence factor, it determines nuclear development" through the analysis of the 3 countries' determinate elements of nuclear development. But, the deterrence factor was not enough for interrupting the process of nuclear developing, even has a tendency of being promotion job, which means it needs further researches and verifications. Thirdly, after comparing the determinate elements of nuclear development in after Post Cold-war and that of in Cold-war period, the outcome tells that many incentive and promotion factors had changed, above all, the international political elements(Diplomacy and negotiation with powerful countries, enhance the position of country in its region, etc) played the more important that the international security elements. This result would be very helpful to control and negotiate the nuclear development of North Korea and Iran in the future.
However, it has limitation in establishing the standard while analyzing and comparing the elements. It is sure that many references and research results from experts are much trustful and by these, I tried to establish the objective standard although, there is still the insufficiency in the research, And this thesis contains another limitation that the absence of presenting control measurement in the frame of the non-proliferation policy by US and international nuclear control system(IAEA, NPT, etc.) In case of these 3 countries, Pakistan and Iran pushed on the nuclear development under the NPT system and the control of IAEA, and North Korea already did nuclear development by ignoring and denying the NPT system. It shows the weakness and limitation of IAEA and NPT system, And, the non-proliferation policy by US failed in controlling nuclear development by enforcement of Pakistan and North Korea against it. It should have presented the control measurement against those recognized problems.
In conclusion, if the proper objective standards and frames are researched by analyzing the determinate elements of nuclear development and study on the factors of nuclear development of certain country by these standards and frames then decisive control measurements would come out.
Lastly, I hope to make up for the weakness and limitation of IAEA and NPT to control the Iran's nuclear development which has high possibility of connection to the terrorist groups, and Pakistan and North Korea's nuclear development. Plus, further research is required to control the countries which are trying to develop the nuclear weapon by the policy of isolation and non-proliferation linking with surrounding countries. Finally, many investigations are needed to find the solution through considering the certain country's determinate elements of nuclear development.