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Title Page
ABSTRACT
Contents
ABBREVATIONS 10
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 11
1.1. Background 11
1.2. Performance of Coffee Sub Sector in Uganda 12
1.2.1. Coffee production and Productivity 14
1.2.2. Coffee farmers 15
1.2.3. Input use 15
1.2.4. Extension and Business Development Services 15
1.2.5. Coffee Research 16
1.2.6. Value Addition 16
1.2.7. Marketing 17
1.2.8. Consumption 19
1.2.9. Regulatory environment: 19
1.2.10. Institutional set up 20
1.2.11. Investment opportunities in the Coffee sub sector 21
1.3. Statement of the Problem 21
1.4. Objectives of the Study 22
1.5. The Scope 22
1.6. Hypothesis of the Study 22
1.7. Significance of the study 22
1.8. Disposition of thesis 23
CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF LITERATURE 24
2.1. Introduction 24
2.2. Theory behind international trade 24
2.3. Empirical Evidence 25
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 29
3.1. Data types and Sources 29
3.2. Tests and Data Analysis 29
3.3. The Model Specifications 29
3.4. Limitations to the study 30
CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 31
4.1. Unit Root Test 31
4.2. ARDL Estimates 32
4.2.1. ARDL Bounds Test 32
4.2.2. Long run ARDL Estimates 33
4.2.3. Short run ARDL Estimates 35
4.3. Residual Diagnostics 37
4.3.1. Serial LM Correlation Test 37
4.3.2. Heteroskedasticity Test 37
4.4. Normality Test 38
4.5. Ramsey RESET test- Stability test 38
CHAPTER 5: FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 40
5.1. Summary of Findings and Conclusions 40
5.2. Policy Recommendations 42
REFERENCES 43
APPENDICES 46
Table 1.2.1: Uganda Coffee Total Production, Consumption and Exports 14
Table 1.2.2: Leading Destinations for Uganda Coffee Exports 18
Table 4.1.1: Estimates of the ADF unit root test 31
Table 4.2.1: ARDL Bounds Test results 32
Table 4.2.2: Long run Coefficient estimates 33
Table 4.2.3: Short run Coefficient estimates 35
Table 4.3.1: Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test results 37
Table 4.3.2: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity test results 37
Figure 1.2.1. Uganda's Coffee Exports (in thousand 60kg bags) 1990/91-2015 13
Figure 1.2.2. Prices paid to Uganda Coffee growers (in US cents/lb) 1990/91-... 13
초록보기 더보기
This paper investigates the factors that influence Uganda's Coffee Export Volumes for the period spanning from 1990 to 2016. The hypotheses tested were that; domestic consumption of coffee reduce coffee export volumes and production of coffee, world demand for coffee and export price increase coffee export volumes.
The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model has been applied to estimate Cointegration relationship between coffee exports and total production, domestic consumption, world demand and export price for coffee. To conduct the empirical analysis, the October group annual time series data 1990-2016 has been used.
The results reveal that total production, domestic consumption and export price have greater impact on Uganda's coffee export volumes.
The findings indicate that total production has a positive and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the short run and long run, while, domestic consumption and export price have a negative and significant impact on coffee export volumes in the long run.
World demand is insignificant and has no impact on Uganda's coffee export volumes in the short run and long run.
Our policy suggestion is that in order to improve the coffee export supply, Government of Uganda should in line with the National Agriculture Policy 2011 and National Coffee Policy 2013; Strengthen the capacity of coffee farmers and farmer groups and support them to scale up farm level production and productivity, promote and support adoption of good agronomic practices at farm level and encourage use of high yielding disease resistant and drought tolerant varieties to maximize coffee export earnings sustainably.
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