Title Page

Contents

國文抄錄 21

Abstract 22

1. Introduction 23

1.1. Research Objectives 23

1.2. Research Background 28

2. Theoretical Backgrounds 35

2.1. Climate Change Scenarios 35

2.1.1. Overview of RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 35

2.1.2. Stationary Quantile Mapping 39

2.1.3. Nonstationary Quantile Mapping 42

2.2. Overview of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 45

2.2.1. Introduction of SWAT 45

2.2.2. Hydrology 52

2.2.3. Nutrients 55

2.2.4. Erosion 57

2.2.5. Main Channel Processes 59

2.3. Overview of GSTARS 62

2.3.1. Introduction of GSTARS 62

2.3.2. Theoretical Equation 64

2.3.3. Sediment transport capacity computations 66

2.4. Overview of QUAL-MEV 68

2.4.1. Overview of Surface Water Quality Model 68

2.4.2. QUAL-MEV 70

2.4.3. Governing Equation 72

3. Field Survey 78

3.1. Study Area 78

4. Model Setup 82

4.1. Prediction of Climate Scenarios 82

4.2. Application of Watershed Model 84

4.2.1. SWAT Setup 84

4.3. Application of Hydraulic Model 101

4.3.1. HEC-ResSim 101

4.3.2. GSTARS Setup 104

4.4. Structure of Surface Water Quality 112

4.4.1. Surface Water Quality 112

5. Results and Discussions 116

5.1. Results of Climate Change Projection 116

5.1.1. Rainfall 116

5.1.2. Maximum temperature 119

5.1.3. Minimum temperature 122

5.2. Results of Hydrological Model(SWAT) 125

5.2.1. Calibration Parameters for SWAT 125

5.2.2. Results of Flow Calibration and Validation 132

5.2.3. Results of Water quality Calibration and Validation 145

5.2.4. Projection 152

5.3. Results of Sediment Transport Model 170

5.3.1. Model Calibration and Validation Data 170

5.3.2. Results of River bed Variation 175

5.4. Results of Water quality Model 270

5.4.1. Model Calibration and Validation 270

5.4.2. Prediction of water quality 272

6. Conclusion 311

7. Reference 315

Table 2.1.1. Overview of RCP Scenarios 36

Table 2.1.2. HadGEM3-RA models and related institutions 38

Table 2.3.1. Sediment capacity equations in GSTARS 3.0 67

Table 2.4.1. Type of Computational Elements 70

Table 4.2.1. Calibration and Validation of Flow 95

Table 4.2.2. Calibration and Validation of Water Quality 98

Table 4.2.3. Statistical indices used to evaluate the model accuracy 100

Table 4.3.1. Operation rule of HEC-ResSim simulation(Andong Dam) 103

Table 4.3.2. Analysis section of riverbed variation 105

Table 4.3.3. Configuration and Data Source of Boundary Conditions 106

Table 4.4.1. Hydraulic Model Adaption Stream (Nakdong River) 112

Table 5.1.1. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed (Rainfall) 118

Table 5.1.2. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed (Maximum temperature) 121

Table 5.1.3. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed (Minimum temperature) 124

Table 5.2.1. List of adjusted hydrologic parameters of SWAT 127

Table 5.2.2. List of adjusted sediment parameters of SWAT 129

Table 5.2.3. List of adjusted water quality parameters of SWAT 131

Table 5.2.4. Result of Flow calibration and validation 144

Table 5.2.5. Result of Water quality calibration and validation 151

Table 5.2.6. Result of change in the future outflow 154

Table 5.2.7. Result of change in the future SS 159

Table 5.2.8. Result of change in the future TN 160

Table 5.2.9. Result of change in the future TP 161

Table 5.2.10. Flow regime change in Naeseong cheon 164

Table 5.2.11. Flow regime change in Yeong river 164

Table 5.2.12. Flow regime change in Byeongsung cheon 165

Table 5.2.13. Flow regime change in Wi cheon 165

Table 5.2.14. Flow regime change in Gam cheon 166

Table 5.2.15. Flow regime change in Geumho cheon 166

Table 5.2.16. Flow regime change in Hoi cheon 167

Table 5.2.17. Flow regime change in Hwang river 167

Table 5.2.18. Flow regime change in Nam river 168

Table 5.2.19. Flow regime change in Cheongdo cheon 168

Table 5.2.20. Flow regime change in Milyang river 169

Table 5.2.21. Flow regime change in Yangsan cheon 169

Table 5.3.1. Statistical evaluation of goodness-of-fit 172

Table 5.3.2. Exceeded Probability of Annual Streamflow 177

Table 5.3.3. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 178

Table 5.3.4. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 178

Table 5.3.5. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 179

Table 5.3.6. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 179

Table 5.3.7. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 180

Table 5.3.8. Analysis of future discharge(HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 180

Table 5.3.9. Numerical simulation cases 181

Table 5.3.10. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 187

Table 5.3.11. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 191

Table 5.3.12. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 196

Table 5.3.13. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 197

Table 5.3.14. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 201

Table 5.3.15. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 202

Table 5.3.16. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 206

Table 5.3.17. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 207

Table 5.3.18. Cross section changes at section 4 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 211

Table 5.3.19. Cross section changes at section 4 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 212

Table 5.3.20. Cross section changes at section 5 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 216

Table 5.3.21. Cross section changes at section 5 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 217

Table 5.3.22. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 223

Table 5.3.23. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 227

Table 5.3.24. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 232

Table 5.3.25. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 233

Table 5.3.26. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 237

Table 5.3.27. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 238

Table 5.3.28. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 242

Table 5.3.29. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 243

Table 5.3.30. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 249

Table 5.3.31. Results of thalweg changes (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 253

Table 5.3.32. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 258

Table 5.3.33. Cross section changes at section 1 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 259

Table 5.3.34. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 263

Table 5.3.35. Cross section changes at section 2 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 264

Table 5.3.36. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 268

Table 5.3.37. Cross section changes at section 3 (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 269

Table 5.4.1. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 278

Table 5.4.2. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 279

Table 5.4.3. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 284

Table 5.4.4. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 285

Table 5.4.5. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 290

Table 5.4.6. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 291

Table 5.4.7. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 297

Table 5.4.8. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 298

Table 5.4.9. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 303

Table 5.4.10. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 304

Table 5.4.11. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 309

Table 5.4.12. Result of water quaily change in HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 310

Figure 1.1.1. Schematic diagram 27

Figure 2.1.1. Previous IPCC assessments (SAR IS92a, AR4 SRES A1B,... 36

Figure 2.1.2. Quantile Mapping 41

Figure 2.1.3. Statistical distribution obtained from stationary and... 42

Figure 2.2.1. Land phase of the hydrologic cycle 53

Figure 2.2.2. HRU / Subbasin flow chart 54

Figure 2.2.3. Partitioning of nitrogen in SWAT 56

Figure 2.2.4. Partitioning of phosphorous in SWAT 57

Figure 2.3.1. Schematic Representation of Stream Tube Concept 63

Figure 2.4.1. Stream Network of Computational Elements and... 71

Figure 2.4.2. Response relationship between water quality factors... 77

Figure 3.1.1. Diagram of Nakdong river 81

Figure 4.2.1. Weather Station of Nakdong River Watershed 86

Figure 4.2.2. DEM of Nakdong River Watershed 88

Figure 4.2.3. Land Use of Nakdong River Watershed 89

Figure 4.2.4. Soil of Nakdong River Watershed 90

Figure 4.2.5. Water budget diagram of Nakdong River... 92

Figure 4.2.6. Flow station of Nakdong River 94

Figure 4.2.7. Water quality station of Nakdong River 97

Figure 4.3.1. Diagram of HEC-ResSim model in... 102

Figure 4.3.2. Analysis section of riverbed variation 104

Figure 4.3.3. Discharge data 107

Figure 4.3.4. Discharge - water level curve 108

Figure 4.4.1. Stream Network of Reaches and Computational Elements(Andong Dam~Sangju weir) 113

Figure 4.4.2. Stream Network of Reaches and Computational... 114

Figure 4.4.3. Stream Network of Reaches and Computational... 115

Figure 5.1.1. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 117

Figure 5.1.2. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 117

Figure 5.1.3. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 120

Figure 5.1.4. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 120

Figure 5.1.5. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 123

Figure 5.1.6. Seasonal Trend Analysis of Nakdong river watershed... 123

Figure 5.2.1. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Naeseong cheon) 132

Figure 5.2.2. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Yeong river) 133

Figure 5.2.3. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Byeongsung) 134

Figure 5.2.4. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Wi cheon) 135

Figure 5.2.5. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Gam cheon) 136

Figure 5.2.6. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Geumho River) 137

Figure 5.2.7. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Hoi cheon) 138

Figure 5.2.8. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Hwang River) 139

Figure 5.2.9. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Nam River) 140

Figure 5.2.10. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Cheongdo cheon) 141

Figure 5.2.11. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Milyang River) 142

Figure 5.2.12. Calibration and Validation of Flow (Yangsan) 143

Figure 5.2.13. Diagram of General Method 146

Figure 5.2.14. Diagram of Perfect Prognosis 147

Figure 5.2.15. Diagram of Model Output Statistics 148

Figure 5.2.16. Calibration and Validation of water quality (Naeseongcheon) 150

Figure 5.2.17. Monthly analysis of streamflow in Wicheon 153

Figure 5.2.18. Monthly analysis of SS in Wicheon 156

Figure 5.2.19. Monthly analysis of T-N in Wicheon 157

Figure 5.2.20. Monthly analysis of T-P in Wicheon 158

Figure 5.2.21. Flow regime change in Wicheon 163

Figure 5.3.1. Comparison water surface elevations 171

Figure 5.3.2. Validation of GSTARS Model 174

Figure 5.3.3. Exceeded Probability of Annual Streamflow(Andong... 176

Figure 5.3.4. Select of riverbed change sections (Andong dam ~ Sangju weir) 182

Figure 5.3.5. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 184

Figure 5.3.6. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 185

Figure 5.3.7. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 186

Figure 5.3.8. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 188

Figure 5.3.9. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 189

Figure 5.3.10. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 190

Figure 5.3.11. River structure of Section 1 193

Figure 5.3.12. Cross section changes at section. 1... 194

Figure 5.3.13. Cross section changes at section. 1... 195

Figure 5.3.14. River structure of Section 2 198

Figure 5.3.15. Cross section changes at section 2... 199

Figure 5.3.16. Cross section changes at section 2... 200

Figure 5.3.17. River structure of Section 3 203

Figure 5.3.18. Cross section changes at section 3... 204

Figure 5.3.19. Cross section changes at section 3... 205

Figure 5.3.20. River structure of Section 4 208

Figure 5.3.21. Cross section changes at section 4... 209

Figure 5.3.22. Cross section changes at section 4... 210

Figure 5.3.23. River structure of Section 5 213

Figure 5.3.24. Cross section changes at section 5... 214

Figure 5.3.25. Cross section changes at section 5... 215

Figure 5.3.26. Select of riverbed change sections... 218

Figure 5.3.27. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 220

Figure 5.3.28. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 221

Figure 5.3.29. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 222

Figure 5.3.30. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 224

Figure 5.3.31. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 225

Figure 5.3.32. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 226

Figure 5.3.33. River structure of Section 1 229

Figure 5.3.34. Cross section changes at section 1... 230

Figure 5.3.35. Cross section changes at section 1... 231

Figure 5.3.36. River structure of Section 2 234

Figure 5.3.37. Cross section changes at section 2... 235

Figure 5.3.38. Cross section changes at section 2... 236

Figure 5.3.39. River structure of Section 3 239

Figure 5.3.40. Cross section changes at section 3... 240

Figure 5.3.41. Cross section changes at section 3... 241

Figure 5.3.42. Select of riverbed change sections... 244

Figure 5.3.43. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 246

Figure 5.3.44. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 247

Figure 5.3.45. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 248

Figure 5.3.46. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - F.F.S 250

Figure 5.3.47. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - M.F.S 251

Figure 5.3.48. Thalweg elevation changes with number of stream tubes(3) - L.F.S 252

Figure 5.3.49. River structure of Section 1 255

Figure 5.3.50. Cross section changes at section 1... 256

Figure 5.3.51. Cross section changes at section 1... 257

Figure 5.3.52. River structure of Section 2 260

Figure 5.3.53. Cross section changes at section 2... 261

Figure 5.3.54. Cross section changes at section 2... 262

Figure 5.3.55. River structure of Section 3 265

Figure 5.3.56. Cross section changes at section 3... 266

Figure 5.3.57. Cross section changes at section 3... 267

Figure 5.4.1. Calibration results of Water quality in Nakdong River basin 271

Figure 5.4.2. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 274

Figure 5.4.3. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 275

Figure 5.4.4. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 276

Figure 5.4.5. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 277

Figure 5.4.6. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 280

Figure 5.4.7. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 281

Figure 5.4.8. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 282

Figure 5.4.9. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 283

Figure 5.4.10. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 286

Figure 5.4.11. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 287

Figure 5.4.12. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 288

Figure 5.4.13. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 289

Figure 5.4.14. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 293

Figure 5.4.15. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 294

Figure 5.4.16. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 295

Figure 5.4.17. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 296

Figure 5.4.18. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 299

Figure 5.4.19. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 300

Figure 5.4.20. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 301

Figure 5.4.21. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 302

Figure 5.4.22. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 305

Figure 5.4.23. Future water quality change - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 306

Figure 5.4.24. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5) 307

Figure 5.4.25. Future water quality change (River geometric variation) - F.F.S (HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5) 308

 본 연구의 목적은 기후변화로 인해 4대강 사업으로 설치된 다기능 보 설치로 인해 유속 감소와 체류시간 증가 등의 수리적 환경변화로 인한 수질문제가 대두되고 있다. 그러나 댐과 보의 운영기작을 고려한 정체성수역에서의 녹조제거효과 및 수질개선 연구와 그에 따른 하상변동을 연계한 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후시나리오인 HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5와 8.5를 대상으로 댐/보와 하구둑이 연계되어 있는 정체성 조절하천 유역을 대상으로 유역-하천-하상변동 모형의 개별적인 연구를 통합적으로 연계하는 방안으로 연구를 수행하고자 한다. 댐과 보 방류시나리오 모의를 통해 유량을 조절함으로써 유속변화에 따른 하류지역의 조류를 포함한 수질변화와 부유사이송에 따른 하상변동 결과를 장·단기적으로 분석하고자 한다.