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Title Page
Abstract
Contents
Abbreviations 12
I. INTRODUCTION 14
1. Aim of the study 18
2. Review of Previous studies 18
3. Scope of Study 22
4. Importance of the Study 22
5. Research Methods 23
6. Structure of study 24
II. CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 26
1. Definitions 26
2. Conceptual Framework of the Study 29
3. Pakistan's Vulnerability to climate change 31
4. Climate Change-Pakistan's perspective 34
1) Pakistan as a GHG Emitter 37
2) Glacier Retreat 37
3) Precipitation 38
4) Temperature Variation 39
5) Heat Waves 40
6) Saline water Intrusion 41
7) Sea Level Rise 41
8) Climate change and Indus delta of Pakistan 42
9) Indus River Basin 42
10) Pakistan's Past and Expected Future Climatic trends 43
III. IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR PAKISTAN 47
1. Climate change and National Economy 47
2. Climate Change and Agriculture 48
3. Water Resources and climate change (current status and vulnerability) 61
4. Climate Change and Energy Sector 70
5. Climate change and society 71
IV. PAKISTAN'S CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION 76
1. National Climate Change Policy of Pakistan (2013) 76
2. Policy Implementation 89
V. Conclusion and Recommendations 97
Appendix-I. Policy Analysis Table : National Climate Change Policy 2012 104
References 115
〈Table 3-1〉 Share of different sectors in Gross Domestic Product (2012-13) 48
〈Table 3-2〉 Agriculture Sector Growth trends in Pakistan 2006 to 2013 52
〈Table 3-3〉 Actual Surface water availability in Pakistan (Recent Trend from 2003-4 to 2011-12) 62
〈Figure 2-1〉 Conceptual Framework (Modified from IPCC, 2007) 30
〈Figure 2-2〉 Global Climate Risk Index 2012 (for the period 1991-2010) 32
〈Figure 2-3〉 Agro-Climatic Zones of Pakistan (On annual Precipitation Basis) 36
〈Figure 2-4〉 Projected Impacts of Climate Change 46
〈Figure 3-1〉 National Water security ranking of Pakistan 64
〈Figure 3-2〉 Glacier Melt in Siachen Glacier Past & Present 69
초록보기 더보기
The aim of this study is to find out the socio-economic implications of climate change for Pakistan with special reference to agriculture sector and water resources. The study analyzed previous studies, reports and official data to examine the impact of climate change on these two sectors. Study found out that lack of awareness in the public, low adaptive capacity of the farmers and poor infrastructure are the chief reasons for high vulnerability of communities to climate change. Agriculture output and water resources availability have experienced negative trends in recent years mainly due to climate related disasters. In this respect, National climate change policy was a positive step towards dealing climate change challenge in Pakistan. The document does not cover the issues like which organization or what level of government will be responsible and what would be the time frame of implementation. Moreover, the policy has not provided any measure to address institutional overlap and confusion particularly in the water and energy sector. The role of local governments in policy implementation should have been specifically mentioned in the policy document. There is a dire need to highlight Pakistan's case at the international level, which will be important for getting technical and financial assistance from the donors' community. So far, Pakistan has not been able to gain much financial and technical assistance related to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Moreover, effort has been made to highlight the link between the government, NGOs and donors in effective implementation of National Climate Change policy. The study suggested that the Climate Change Division should be transformed into a modern climate change unit with experts and specialists. So that such unit with climate change experts will be able to effectively deal with climate change matters and implement and deliver projects in best way.
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