Title page
Contents
Abstract 4
Résumé 5
Acknowledgements 6
1. Introduction and main findings 9
2. Looking at the past: Growth accounting 11
Past trends in employment outcomes 11
Accounting for the link between employment outcomes and economic growth 13
Results of the growth accounting exercise 15
3. Looking ahead: Labour force projections and growth scenarios 20
Projections and hypothetical scenarios on labour force developments 20
Projecting future growth under different labour market scenarios 26
Results of the growth projection exercise 27
4. Policy implications 29
References 31
Annex A. Additional Figures and Tables 35
Figure 1. The total employment input has increased in most countries 12
Figure 2. Hours worked have declined in most OECD countries, especially for men 13
Figure 3. Accounting for different contributing factors to economic growth across the OECD 16
Figure 4. Women's rising employment rates have substantially contributed to economic growth 18
Figure 5. Women's rising share among the employed offsets declines in hours worked per worker 19
Figure 6. Labour force participation rate scenarios, Part one 24
Figure 7. Labour force participation rate scenarios, Part two 25
Figure 8. Further gains in growth from closing gender participation and working hours gaps 28
Annex Tables
Table A A.1. Summary of data series used in growth accounting 40
Table A A.2. Country-specific notes for the data series 41
Table A A.3. Accounting for different contributing factors to economic growth (2000-2022) 42
Table A A.4. Decomposition of employment and working hours components (2000-2022) 43
Table A A.5. Summary of data series used in growth projections 44
Table A A.6. Output projections under different scenarios (annual growth) 45
Table A A.7. Output projections under different scenarios (total growth effect) 46
Annex Figures
Figure A A.1. The size of the working age population has grown in most OECD countries 35
Figure A A.2. Total headcount labour force scenarios, Part one 36
Figure A A.3. Total headcount labour force scenarios, Part two 37
Figure A A.4. Working hours scenarios, Part one 38
Figure A A.5. Working hours scenarios, Part two 39