Title
Contents
Preface 5
Executive Summary 7
Acknowledgements 12
Introduction 13
International Institutions in the Late 20th Century 13
Chapter 1: Expanding Agenda Stretching Institutional Capacities 15
Complex Risks Driving Demands for Global Governance 16
Scenario Ⅰ. Barely Keeping Afloat 19
Chapter 2: Power Shifts Complicating Global Governance 21
Will Multipolarity Enhance or Erode Multilateralism? 22
Scenario Ⅱ. Fragmentation 27
Chapter 3: Some Success in Adapting 29
Informal Groupings 31
Growth of Regionalism 33
Nonstate Actors Step Up to the Plate 35
Scenario Ⅲ. Concert of Europe Redux 39
Chapter 4: An Uncertain Future 41
Weak and Failing States 42
Interlocking Resource Issues 44
"Over-the-Horizon" Issues for Global Governance 45
Scenario Ⅳ. Gaming Reality: Conflict Trumps Cooperation 49
Conclusion 51
Future Opportunities, but also Limits 51
Annexes 53
Annex A: World Views of Global Governance 55
Annex B: The Prospects for Regionalism 61
East Asia 61
South America 62
Africa 63
Annex C: The Arctic: Challenge or Opportunity for Global Governance? 67
Annex D: Are Global Governance Tools Sufficient for Fragile States? 69
Key Weaknesses 69
Rising Powers and Fragile States 71
Annex E: Migration in the Age of Uncertainty 73
Current Migration Trends 73
Future Migration Trends 76
Future Migration Challenges 76
Annex F: Threats from Biotechnology 79
Biological Governance 79