서문/ 3Chapter 01 교육연구와 인과추론교육연구에서 인과추론의 역사 ············································································· 13인과추론에 대한 전 세계적 관심 ··········································································· 20이 책의 개요 ······································································································· 21더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 23Chapter 02 이론의 중요성이론이란 무엇인가? ······························································································ 28교육학에서의 이론 ······························································································ 32바우처 이론 ········································································································ 34어떤 종류의 이론인가? ························································································· 37더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 38Chapter 03 인과적 질문을 위한 연구 설계좋은 연구의 조건 ································································································· 42인과추론의 조건 ·································································································· 44인과추론에 대한 과거의 접근 방식 ······································································· 47인과추론의 핵심 문제 ··························································································· 49더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 54Chapter 04 연구자-설계 무선 할당 실험무선 할당 실험 ··································································································· 60무선 할당 실험에서의 데이터 분석 ······································································· 67더 읽을거리 ········································································································ 79Chapter 05 연구자-설계 무선 할당 실험에서의 이슈들실험 설계 시 핵심적인 결정 사항 ·········································································· 84무선 할당 실험의 타당성을 저해하는 요소들 ························································ 92무선 할당 실험에 대한 피험자들의 저항에 대처하기:인도의 사례 ······················ 97더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 105Chapter 06 통계적 검정력과 표본 크기통계적 검정력 ···································································································· 110통계적 검정력에 영향을 미치는 요인 ·································································· 122더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 134Chapter 07 군집 수준의 무선 할당 실험확률 절편 다층모형을 활용한 집단 수준의 처치 효과 추정 ································· 141군집 수준 무선 할당 실험에서의 통계적 검정력 ················································· 151고정효과 다층모형을 활용한 처치효과 추정 ······················································· 158더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 165Chapter 08 자연 실험 연구자연 실험과 연구자 설계 실험의 비교 ································································ 170자연 실험의 두 가지 연구 사례 ··········································································· 171자연 실험 사례 찾기 ··························································································· 180분석 대상의 범위 선정 문제 ··············································································· 184자연 실험 연구의 타당도에 영향을 미치는 요인 ················································· 187더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 199Chapter 09 회귀 불연속 설계학급당 학생 수가 학업 성취도에 미치는 영향 ····················································· 204결과변수와 할당변수의 관계 일반화하기 ···························································· 224회귀 불연속 설계의 타당성에 대한 추가적인 위협 ·············································· 235더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 240Chapter 10 도구변수 추정에 대한 소개도구변수 분석에 대한 소개 ················································································· 244교육수준이 시민참여에 미치는 인과적 영향에 대한 OLS 추정치에서 발생하는 편의 ································ 247도구변수 추정 ···································································································· 255IVE(도구변수 추정)의 두 가지 주요 가정 ··························································· 264도구변수 추정치를 얻기 위한 대안적인 방법들 ················································· 267도구변수 추정 접근의 확장 ················································································· 278도구변수 탐색 및 방어하기 ················································································· 294더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 305Chapter 11 준실험에서 처치 효과를 구하기 위한 도구변수의 활용“준실험”의 개념 ································································································ 311준실험에서 처치의 인과효과를 추정하기 위해 도구변수 활용하기 ····················· 312준실험 맥락에서 도구변수 추정치에 대한 더 깊은 통찰 ······································ 318회귀 불연속 설계에서의 “불분명함”을 해결하기 위해 도구변수 추정 활용하기 ··· 323더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 328Chapter 12 비실험자료로 추정된 처치 효과의 편의 교정층화 방법을 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ···································································· 333회귀분석에서 공변인 직접 통제를 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ·································· 349경향점수 접근을 통해 관측 편의 줄이기 ····························································· 354경향점수 매칭을 활용한 처치 효과 추정 ····························································· 364실제적인 질문 ···································································································· 372더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 373Chapter 13 오랜 탐구로 얻은 방법론적 교훈확실한 이론을 가져라 ························································································· 378연구 대상과 관련된 문화, 규칙, 제도를 파악하라 ··············································· 380반사실(counterfactual)을 이해하라 ································································· 382선택 편의를 항상 경계하라 ················································································· 383다양한 결과변수를 사용하라 ·············································································· 385장기적 영향을 고려하라 ····················································································· 386하위집단에 대한 효과를 검증하라 ······································································ 387결과를 정확하게 해석하라 ·················································································· 389비정상적인 결과에 주목하라 ·············································································· 391좋은 연구는 언제나 새로운 질문으로 이어진다 ·················································· 392더 읽을거리 ······································································································ 394Chapter 14 중요한 교훈과 앞으로의 과제정책 가이드라인 1:학교 입학을 위한 비용(등록금)을 줄여라 ··························· 399정책 가이드라인 2:아이들의 일상적인 학교생활을 변화시켜라 ························ 402정책 가이드라인 3:동기부여를 개선하라 ························································· 406정책 가이드라인 4:가난한 학생들에게 보다 많은 학교교육 선택지를 제공하라 ············································································ 412요 약 ················································································································ 415나가며 ·············································································································· 417참고문헌 ··········································································································· 418찾아보기 ··········································································································· 434