재무분석가의 이익예측 활동은 투자자의 의사결정에 영향을 미치는 중요한 공시 정보의 하나이다. 정확한 예측 정보는 자본시장의 거래 활성화 및 적정 주가 형성과 밀접한 관련이 있다. 본 연구는 회계감사 관점에서 높은 수준의 감사노력이 이익예측치를 제시하는 재무분석가의 활동에 긍정적인 영향을 주는지 조사한다. 이를 위해 직급별 감사시간 자료를 이용하여 파트너(업무담당이사), 등록회계사, 수습회계사의 감사시간이 재무분석가 이익예측치 정확성에 영향을 미치는지 살펴본다.
국내 상장기업 표본을 이용한 분석 결과, 파트너가 투입하는 감사시간 비중의 증가는 재무분석가 이익예측치 정확성을 높이는 효과가 있었다. 또한 수습회계사 감사시간 비중의 증가 역시 이익예측치 정확성과 양의 관계가 있었다. 그러나 등록회계사 시간 비중은 이익예측 정확성과 음의 관련을 가졌으며 이는 non-Big4 감사인 표본에서 유도되었다. 또한 직급별 감사시간과 재무분석가 이익예측 정확성의 관계는 주로 저품질 회계정보 표본에서 나타나, 이미 고품질 회계정보를 공시하는 기업에 대해서는 감사인의 노력이 미치는 영향이 제한적일 가능성을 확인하였다. 감사인 규모를 구분한 조사 결과 파트너 시간의 효과는 Big4 감사인에서, 수습회계사 시간의 효과는 non-Big4 감사인에서 주로 관찰되었다. 추가분석으로 분·반기 검토시간까지 포함한 총시간을 이용한 결과도 일관되게 나타났다.
본 연구의 발견은 다음과 같은 공헌점을 제공할 수 있다. 우선, 본 연구는 직급별 감사시간을 이용하여 재무분석가 예측활동과의 관계를 조사함으로써 관련 분야의 연구를 확장하고 있다. 이와 같이 감사인의 직급별 시간 투입에 따라 재무분석가 예측정확성이 상이하게 나타난다는 결과는 투자자의 의사결정에 도움을 줄 것으로 예상된다. 또한 본 연구의 발견은 직급별 시간의 공시를 의무화한 제도의 효과를 살펴보았다는 점에서 규제기관의 관련 정책 결정에 중요한 자료로 활용될 수 있으며, 자본시장의 이해관계자에게도 유용한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.Financial analysts’ forecasts are one of the important disclosed data that investors’ can use in their decision-making process. For instance, analysts’ earnings forecasts are closely related to the trading volumes and the formation of stock prices in the capital market. From the perspective of audit efforts, this study investigates whether the audit hours exerted in financial statement audits affect the analysts’ forecasting activities. Specifically, labor ranked audit hour data is used to investigate whether there are different effects between the audit hours of partners, registered accountants (senior CPAs), and staff level accountants (junior CPAs) and the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts.
As a result of using the sample of listed companies in Korea from 2014 to 2018, the increase in the proportion of partner audit hours increases the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. In addition, the increase in the proportion of audit hours of junior CPAs is also positively related to the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. However, senior CPAs’ audit hours ratio is negatively related with earnings forecasts accuracy. These results suggest that the audit hours at the top and bottom of audit team members are relatively closely related to the improvement of the financial analysts’ forecasting environment compared to the middle level of auditors’ audit hours.
Current study also documents that the relationship is mainly observed in low-quality accounting information sub-sample, suggesting that audit efforts have a limited impact on analyst forecast accuracy for companies that already disclose high-quality accounting information. The results of testing the effect of auditor size show that the effect of partner hours is mainly observed in the Big4 auditors’ clients, while the effect of the junior CPAs’ hours is derived by the non-Big4 auditors’ clients. These results imply that the effect of audit hour increase in each auditor rank is more pronounced in the sub-samples with relatively lower ranked audit hours. For instance, the increase in partner audit hours in the Big4 auditors’ clients, which has a relatively lower level of partner audit hours than the non-Big4 auditor, is affecting the improvement of the analysts’ forecasting environment. Similarly, the positive effect of junior CPAs’ audit hours on analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy is being induced in the non-Big4 auditor sample, which has a relatively lower level of junior CPAs’ audit hours than Big4 auditors. The study also finds that the results are consistent when total hours including review hours are used. Lastly, the results after including the analysts following to control for the information environment are consistent with the main results.
The findings of this study make the following contributions. First, while previous studies have generally focused on the effects of accounting quality or audit fees on analysts’ forecasting activities, this study is expanding related studies by investigating the effects of audit efforts. Second, investigating the effectiveness of disclosing the labor ranked audit hour data by focusing on the improvement of accounting information environment provides useful implications for regulators and financial authorities. Since this study finds the usefulness of labor ranked hour data by showing that exerted audit hours increase the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts, it provides policy implication to improve the disclosure system. Third, the findings that the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts varies depending on the audit hours exerted by different positions are expected to help investors when making investment decisions. It suggests that investors should refer to the reported labor ranked audit hours of the firm in order to efficiently use analysts forecasts. To summarize, this study is expected to provide useful information to stakeholders in the capital market, such as investors and policy makers.