『한국교육종단연구2005』에 참여한 학생들의 고등학교 진학 데이터를 분석하여, 전문계 고등학교 대비 일반계 고등학교에 진학할 확률에 영향을 미치는 다양한 변인들의 영향력을 분석해 봄으로써 계열 선택의 주된 요인이 어디에 있는가를 탐색해 보고자 하였다. 특히, 선행연구를 통해 밝혀진 학생의 학업성취, 가정배경의 영향을 통제한 이후 학생의 진로활동의 영향을 살펴보고, 학교수준에서 학교의 풍토와 진로지도 관련 변인이 유의한 영향을 미치는가를 파악하고자 하였다.
분석 결과, 기존 선행연구와 같이 고등학교 계열 선택에 학생의 가정환경, 부모의 지원과 같은 배경요인의 영향이 유의하였으나 학업성취도의 투입이 가정배경요인의 영향력을 감소시키는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 학생, 학부모, 교사의 교육포부 및 교육기대 수준과 학생의 진로교육 만족 학교의 개별 상담 정도, 진로프로그램 다양성도 유의하여 학교의 진로지도가 고교 계열 선택에 추가적인 영향을 미칠 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 바탕으로 중학교 시기의 진로교육이 중요함을 논의하였다.This study analyzed the main factors involved in the process by which middle school students choose to enter general high schools rather than vocational high schools. In particular, the effects of students' career-related activities on high school choice were examined after controlling for students' academic achievements and family background variables. The results revealed that, while academic achievement had a noticeable effect on the choice of high schools, the magnitude of the effect varied somewhat when accounting for family background variables. Still, students' level of educational ambition and the educational expectations of parents and teachers has been discovered to lessen the influence of academic achievement. This result indicates that students' educational ambitions and the educational expectations of parents and teachers amplified the demand for post-secondary education, which made students choose to go to general high schools rather than vocational high schools. The effects of family background were significant after controlling for student's academic achievements, and the family environment and support from parents also affected the choice of high school, aside from the individual effort of each student. Particularly significant factors were students’ satisfaction with career education, the frequency of counseling, and the diversity of career education. Because choice of high school is the individual student's decision, it should depend primarily on the student's ability, and then on the family environment and parents' opinions. Results from this study indicate that the school's pressure to achieve and career guidance may be additional factors that play a role in the decision. This is why we have to pay more attention to career guidance in schools.