Title Page
Abstract
Contents
List of Abbreviations 13
Chapter 1. Introduction 14
1.1. Research Motivation 14
1.2. Problem Statement 16
1.3. Research Scope and objectives 20
1.4. Research questions 20
1.5. Research Process 22
Chapter 2. Literature review 23
2.1. Energy profile and current challenges 23
2.2. Green Hydrogen 29
2.3. Importing hydrogen from North Africa - a realistic plan? 33
2.4. REPowerEU and North Africa 34
2.5. Policies and energy in the region 35
2.6. GCAM and North Africa 38
2.7. North Africa Potential 39
Chapter 3. Model and Data 43
3.1. Model 43
3.2. Data 43
3.2.1. Socioeconomic 43
3.2.2. Hydrogen cost 45
3.2.3. Hydrogen sector in the GCAM 46
3.2.4. Levelized Cost Of Energy 50
3.2.5. Calculated cost for the model 51
Chapter 4. Results and Recommendations 59
4.1. renewable energy growth and energy mix in North Africa 59
4.2. GCAM Economics and Energy Price variations in North Africa 62
4.3. Expected future energy consumption rates 66
4.4. Green Hydrogen in its potential for future North Africa 70
4.5. Environmental effect (CO2 emissions and water withdrawal) 75
4.6. Discussion and recommendations 77
References 79
Table 1. Hydrogen Production cost 19
Table 2. summary for the different hydrogen production processes 31
Table 3. Policies in North African Region 2010 - 2021 36
Table 4. Hydrogen projects in North African Region 42
Table 5. Example of Summary for levelized cost of energy 51
Table 6. the development needed for different types of Electrolyzer 52
Table 7. Technical targets under development in the Hydrogen shot program 57
Table 8. input costs for the GCAM scenario 58
Table 9. Demand and Supply for Coal in North Africa, 2020-2030, EJ 62
Table 10. Final Energy Prices variations (Green hydrogen Scenario - BAU Scenario) 63
Figure 1. Network data of gas supply through Nord Stream 16
Fioure 2. Natural gas final consumption bv sector, curope, 1990-2019 16
Figure 3. European Residential Natural gas price 17
Figure 4. European Residential Electricity prices 17
Figure 5. European Monthly change for electricity price 18
Figure 6. European Monthly change for natural gas price 18
Figure 7. European and North African countries on the world map 23
Figure 8. Fossil Fuel Prices 2021-2022 23
Figure 9. Total Energy Supply (TES) by source, Europe 1990-2019 24
Figure 10. Russian pipeline gas supply to EU by route 24
Figure 11. Total Final Consumption (TFC) by source, Europe 1990-2019 25
Figure 12. Energy production by source in Europe 25
Figure 13. Energy consumption by source in Europe 26
Figure 14. Natural gas reserves, Europe 26
Figure 15. Total Energy Supply (TES) by source, North Africa 1990-2019 27
Figure 16. Energy Production in Africa 27
Figure 17. Total Final Consumption (TFC) by source, North Africa 1990-2019 28
Figure 18. Natural Gas import Vs. export 28
Figure 19. Global hydrogen demand by sector NZE (Mt H2), 2019-2030 29
Figure 20. Energy density and specific energy for several fuels 29
Figure 21. Hydrogen production mix 2020-2021 30
Figure 22. Opportunities for cost reduction to produce hydrogen 30
Figure 23. Hydrogen Colors Spectrum 32
Figure 24. Europe and African cooperation fields in the clean hydrogen energy 35
Figure 25. current solar sites all over the world 39
Figure 26. Global Horizontal Irradiation over the world 40
Figure 27. Wind speed over the world 41
Figure 28. GCAM 6.0 Different spatial scale 43
Figure 29. GCAM 32 Regions 44
Figure 30. progress of R&D in terms of the Hydrogen technologies 45
Figure 31. GCAM model 46
Figure 32. energy system with interflows of energy goods in the model 47
Figure 33. Schematic of Major Energy Pathways in GCAM 48
Figure 34. GCAM Hvdrogen structure 49
Figure 35. Area of research and development in the "hydrogen shot 51
Figure 36. Hydrogen Shot strategies to achieve $1/Kg 52
Figure 37. Global LCOE from newly utility-scale solar and Wind power 2020·2021 53
Figure 38. Onshore wind Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors&LCOE 53
Figure 39. PV Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors & LCOE 54
Figure 40. GCAM BREAKDOWN HYDROGEN FROM WIND ENERGY 55
Figure 41. GCAM BREAKDOWN HYDROGEN FROM SOLAR ENERGY 55
Figure 42. Levelized cost of electricity by technology in Africa SAS, 2020-2030 58
Figure 43. Non-Renewable resource production, 2020-2030, EJ 59
Figure 44. Renewable resource production, 2020-2030, EJ 60
Figure 45. Gas production, 2020-2030, EJ 60
Figure 46. Non-Renewable resource Consumption, 2020-2030, EJ 61
Figure 47. Renewable resource Consumption, 2020-2030, EJ 61
Figure 48. Regional Primary Energy Price, 2020-2030, 1975$/GJ 62
Figure 49. Final energy prices $1975/ GJ 64
Figure 50. Hydrogen non-energy cost-1975$/GJ 65
Figure 51. Electricity generation, 2020-2030, EJ 66
Figure 52. Total Final Energy Consumption, EJ 66
Figure 53. TFC by sector-EJ 67
Figure 54. TFC by Sector and Fuel - EJ 68
Figure 55. Gas Pipeline inputs and outputs-EJ 69
Figure 56. Total Final Energy consumption by Fuel- EJ 69
Figure 57. Total Final Energy consumption Hydrogen- PJ 69
Figure 58. Hydrogen output by Sector - PJ 70
Figure 59. Hydrogen Output by Subsector 71
Figure 60. Hydrogen input 72
Figure 61. Hydrogen production 73
Figure 62. Hydrogen Utilization 74
Figure 63. CO2 Emissions by sector - MTC 75
Figure 64. CO2 Emissions by Sector - MTC 75
Figure 65. Water Withdrawal, 2020-2030, KM3 76
Figure 66. Water Consumption, 2020-2030, KM 76
Figure 67. Hydrogen production- Petajoules 77