This study is to explore the determinants on transformation of China's maritime strategy, focused on why China is pursuing changes in military strategy, especially maritime strategy. This study was conducted by using neoclassical realism theory as a research methodology to derive the factors that determine the direction of a country's foreign policy. Among the factors influencing China's decision to change its maritime strategy, the international system was considered as a primary determinant. The national level determinant was selected in two factors: national identity and strategic culture.
The results of the study in terms of the changing determinants in China's maritime strategy since 2012 are as follows. First, the intensified strategic competition between the U.S. and China, especially surrounding West Pacific region, is a key determinant in China's strengthening of its maritime strategy and enhancing its conventional naval capabilities. China announced its maritime strategy to have the capabilities to deny hostile power's effort to access near seas and project naval power into the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean at the same time. China is also rapidly increasing its conventional naval capabilities, such as aircraft carriers, and is endeavoring to improve the quality of its capabilities through continuous overseas training and operations. Strengthening the assertiveness of maritime strategic principles and efforts to increase conventional naval power can be seen as a reflection of China's strategic goal of winning the upper hand in strategic competition with the U.S. on the sea. To sum up the whole situation, in response to the U.S.'s pressure to prevent China from emerging as a regional hegemony, China is seeking an offensive maritime strategy while also striving to secure a dominant conventional naval power.
Second, the U.S. efforts to establish a innovative way of war using advanced military technology have also affected changes in China's maritime strategy. China has been striving for not only to build conventional naval capabilities centered on aircraft carriers but also to develop a low-cost and high-efficiency unmanned system to catch up with the gap between the U.S. and China. Such efforts are seen by the Chinese Navy to introduce an autonomous unmanned weapons system with advanced military technology in parallel with the increase of coventional naval forces. In sum, a new military margin has arisen due to changes in the US-led revolution in military affairs, and China's efforts to catch up with it through military innovation are an important determinant in China's pursuit of multi-dimensionalization in terms of maritime strategic means.
The China's ambition to be maritime power is other important determinant for the transformation of maritime strategy. China is diversifying its maritime strategy means by emerging maritime police and maritime militia to military force structure. And China is strengthening own maritime position by using para-military forces to impose China's claim on neighboring and disputed countries.
Fourth, the strategic culture consisted of the People's War and active defense, which had been formed during the Kuomintang-Communist Civil War and Second Sino-Japanese War, is an important determinant in China's expansion of asymmetric maritime capabilities as a para-military forces for achieving its maritime strategic goal. China believes that the usefulness of Mao Zedong's strategic thought-the principle of the People's War- has continued in mobilizing not only the military capabilities but also the people's overall capabilities to win the war. In addition, China's ambition to project its capabilities to overseas reflects its active defense strategic thought of not waiting passively until the enemy attacks, but fully preparing for the attack and overwhelming it with a decisive counter-attack. Thus, the People's War and Active Defense Strategic thought function as the basic strategic culture that forms the framework of China's strategic thinking from the Civil War to the present, and continue to influence China's asymmetric maritime capabilities and maritime strategy principles.
The change of China's maritime strategy since 2012 can be summarized by the offensiveness of marine strategy ways and the multi-dimensionalization of marine strategy means. China's maritime strategy has become more active due to international system. Assertiveness and aggression in maritime strategy is being further emphasized by national factors. In parallel China is pursuiting of building multi-dimensionalization of strategic means, including conventional naval capabilities and advanced technology, as well as asymmetric maritime capabilities such as maritime police and maritime militia. In conclusion, since 2012, China's maritime strategy has been changed to a more aggressive and multidimensional form due to national factors as well as international system.